Dynasty Leagues

Through five weeks, Mark Andrews is seeing a 74.6-percent (No. 15 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share; an improvement from 2020. The fourth year TE owns a 24.5-percent (No. 3) Target Share, trailing only George Kittle and Darren Waller. Andrews leads the position with 400 receiving yards, churning out a healthy 13.8 (No. 4) yards per reception. The biggest TE gainer on the dynasty rankings, Andrews gains 17.22 Lifetime Value points to rise two spots to TE6.

Hopes were high for the Jets’ second round pick throughout the offseason. To this point in the season, Elijah Moore has failed to meet expectations. Playing four games, Moore has hauled in eight of 20 targets for 66 yards (No. 114). He has averaged 66.1-percent of snaps (No. 65). Moore drops five spots to WR40, this could be a good time to take advantage the value dip. After all, the rookie does have 206 Unrealized Air Yards (No. 20).

In college, Kenny Gainwell stood out in a loaded Memphis backfield. It appears to be deja-vu in Philly. On the season, Gainwell has 19 carries and earned 18 targets, compared to Sanders’ 37 and 14, respectively. While the two are equal in terms of True Yards Per Carry (4.4), Gainwell has been the more efficient back. He leads his running  mate in metrics such as Evaded Tackles (7 to 4), Juke Rate (21.9 to 8.3-percent), and Yards Per Touch (6.2 to 5.7). Gainwell earns 14.29 Lifetime Value points to jump eight spots to RB28.

Ben Roethlisberger has struggled mightily since the first snap of 2021. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, since he wasn’t necessarily sharp to close out 2020. Big Ben leads the league in both Danger Plays (20) and Interceptable Passes (18). He’s averaging a weak 6.1 Yards Per Attempt (No. 31) with a True Passer Rating of 48.4-percent (No. 30). Four weeks and three losses into the Steelers’ 2021 campaign, Roethlisberger has yet to post a Top 20 QB fantasy finish. His best result is a 15.2 point QB23 performance in Week 3. The stock of the 39-year-old signal caller continues its decent losing another four spots to QB38.

The words “reliable weekly fantasy starter” have not often been associated with Mike Williams. Thus far, the 2021 weekly fantasy point totals for the fifth year wideout read: 22.2 (WR14), 22.1 (WR10), and 33.2 (WR1). His 31 (No. 6) targets have him second on the team, just two behind perennial target hog Keenan Allen. No longer just a deep threat, Williams gains 12.57 Lifetime Value points to move up six spots to WR26.

Allen Robinson is off to a disappointing start to the 2021 season. Regardless of matchups, his quarterbacks have delivered a 4.64 (No. 71) Target Quality Rating and a 76.2-percent (No. 50) Catchable Target Rate. The Bears’ offensive game plan has produced a league-worst 4.8 Yards Per Attempt. It may be time to worry if Robinson can’t get on track when the Lions visit Soldier Field in Week 4.

Through two games, Tony Pollard’s efficiency metrics are outstanding with top marks for True Yards Per Carry (6.9, No. 1), Yards Created Per Touch (5.22, No. 1), Juke Rate (47.8-percent, No. 4), and Evaded Tackles (11, No. 10). Pollard earns 12.09 Lifetime Value points to climbs six spots to RB24. Standalone value with immense upside, who doesn’t like that?

Jameis Winston’s metrics are nearly as bad as his Week 2 interceptions. Through two contests he has an Adjusted Yards Per Attempt mark of 5.8 (No. 26) with a 65.8 (No. 30) True Completion Percentage. Jameis has committed four (No. 8) Interceptable Passes and six (No. 9) Danger Plays with a lowly 6.6 (No. 31) Accuracy Rating . With the New England Patriots on tap and Taysom Hill waiting in the wings, Winston drops four spots in the dynasty rankings to QB28.

With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury, Elijah Mitchell saw an 82.6-percent Opportunity Share. He produced a True Yards Per Carry Rate of 4.9 (No. 13 among qualified RBs) with 7 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles and a 36.8-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s fully expected that the 49ers will involve multiple RBs. However, Mitchell is the elite athlete of the group on a team that’s likely to face plenty of positive Game Script.

Those who tuned into NFL Top-10 (plus) Takeaways already know that The Podfather is worried about Tua Tagovailoa. Miami inched by the Patriots 17-16, but Tua was anything but sharp. Looking past the box score we find 4 (No. 3) Danger Plays and 4 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. Tagovailoa had an abysmal 37.3 (No. 31) True Passer Rating and a 7.0 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. He loses 10.23 Lifetime Value points and lands outside of the Top 20 QBs in our dynasty rankings.

When pairing Elijah Moore’s athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling. Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game. His floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot.

Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler. He has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to eventually take back seats? Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.

Ja’Marr Chase broke out during his sophomore season with a 19.5 (77th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. This mirrors Odell Beckham’s 19.8 (68th-percentile) BOA. Beckham put together back-to-back top-five WR seasons in PPR during the 2015-16 seasons. Target competition is a valid concern for Chase that Beckham did not face during his ascension. A takeaway from Chase’s 2019 collegiate season, though, is that he has the talent to maximize his targets. Chase’s ceiling is multiple top-5 PPR seasons and his floor is a touchdown-dependent WR2.

Devonta Smith must be the outlier of outliers to succeed at the NFL. At 6-0 and 170-pounds, the concern with Smith is BMI. We don’t have any players in the database anywhere close to Smith’s size. His Best Comparable Player, Joe Horn, had 30 pounds on him. Does this make Smith a bad prospect? Absolutely not. The goal with analytics is to find ways to limit mistakes. Simply put, we have not seen players with his analytical profile succeed in the NFL. Therefore, it’s impossible to take anything away from his Best Comparable Player comps.

Of all of the Day 2 running backs drafted by teams that traded up since 2011, Javonte Williams was the highest-drafted running back (Pick No. 35). And he’s in excellent company. The sweet spot for NFL Draft trade-up running backs is the top half of the second round. If you had doubts about Williams because he’s currently in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon, remember that Alvin Kamara had to split time with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in his electric rookie season.

The 49ers trading up for Trey Sermon should mean they plan to utilize him at least in a part-time role. Three of the five running backs (60-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round by teams that traded up saw at least 115 touches. For comparison, only four of the other 10 running backs (40-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round exceeded that mark. Sermon joins an elusive club of third-round running backs that teams traded back INTO the third round to acquire.

Brandon Aiyuk flashed high-end upside when he was on the field. He was elite on a per game basis, and his opportunity metrics legitimize that production. His athleticism, versatility, and belonging to a Kyle Shanahan offense all raise his floor and ceiling. However, there are unknowns surrounding him. Trey Lance’s immaturity as a passer, and how Aiyuk performs alongside a healthy George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, will be what decides his value for the next five years.

Tee Higgins is a supremely talented, young, traditional wide receiver who is attached to a great quarterback. With a crowded receiver room, Higgins’ value will be defined by how many targets he receives relative to Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase. Regardless, at worst, he will be the second option on a fantastic offense and be productive in that role. But he also has perennial top-12 upside.

2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence became the fourth-ever first-round quarterback to have a Peyton Manning Best Comparable Player comp. He’s only the second quarterback in the database with Manning has his No. 1 comparison. Lawrence has two former No. 1 overall picks in his five Best Comparable Player comps, while the other three quarterbacks are non-first round quarterbacks. The ceiling is top-5 fantasy quarterback that leads NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. His floor is a low-QB2 that becomes a fantasy football non-factor. 

Justin Fields’ Best Comparable Player comps are interesting because despite running a 4.51 (99th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) 40-Yard Dash, Robert Griffin is the only mobile quarterback in his comps. He has the requisite speed, but his college rushing production didn’t match his athletic measurements. Fields’ ceiling is a league-winning dual-threat quarterback in fantasy leagues and his floor is he’s an inconsistent QB2 in fantasy leagues held back by his passing limitations and decision-making; a pseudo-Scott Fish Bowl cheat code quarterback.