Dynasty Leagues

Hands down, Zach Wilson has the most electric and dynamic list of Best Comparable Players at the quarterback position. He also has the widest range of outcomes in this rookie quarterback class. Ultimately, Wilson reaching his ceiling comes down to if his rushing ability translates to the NFL level. His ceiling is low-end QB1, and his floor is that the New York Jets’ triennial search for a franchise quarterback continues.

In 30 college games, Mac Jones finished with 42 rushing yards on 54 attempts, curbing his fantasy football upside. When compared to the only two first-round quarterbacks in his Best Comparable Players list, Jones isn’t close to their level on the ground. His ceiling is mid-QB2 in fantasy leagues, and his floor is he’s given a Chicago overcoat and sinks to the bottom of waiver wires in non-Superflex leagues.

An early lesson learned back in my minion days as a lurker on the PlayerProfiler website was not to overvalue a player’s Best Comparable Players. One look at Travis Etienne’s comps, however, shows why he is the No. 1 running back in the 2021 rookie class. All five of his Best Comparable Players have had at least one season with 200 carries. Taking carries from James Robinson is the hurdle for Etienne to secure a mid-RB2 floor with top five upside.

Measuring at 6-1 and 232-pounds, Najee Harris has the adequate size to be a bell-cow running back in the NFL. On the other hand, his glaring lack of Pro Day workout metrics was concerning for dynasty managers in rookie drafts. If Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette’s backend-RB1 seasons are Harris’ ceiling, then James Conner’s backend RB2 seasons in 2019 and 2020 represent his floor.

In a SuperFlex league, it’s likely impossible to acquire one of the top options or young guns. Kirk Cousins is a hidden value QB2, currently being drafted at QB24 per startup ADP. The volatility may scare some, but not every quarterback can put up great numbers in half their games with top five fantasy upside. While he does have a bit of unpredictability to his weekly performances, he has high-ceiling upside, a stable situation, and an elite arsenal of weapons around him.

No wide receiver will have a better rookie season than Jerry Jeudy and be this inexpensive again. He’s currently the WR25 per startup ADP. If he maintains his efficiency, fixes a few drops, and his quarterback performs better in getting him the ball, he can easily be a 1,100-plus yard receiver with a handful of touchdowns to go with it. This is the most inexpensive he will ever be. Buy while you can.

Jonathan Taylor is poised to be a top fantasy RB in his second year for the Colts after taking off in the second half of his rookie season. He became the team’s offensive focal point with 15-plus fantasy points in each game from Weeks 11-17. He fits the Colts’ gashing offensive identity, is only 22 years old, and ranks favorably in almost every workout metric, college production statistic, or intangible data point.
 
With Jared Goff last season, Cooper Kupp saw 125 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) targets and played 443 (No. 11) slot snaps. This season, he goes from Goff’s 7.3 (No. 22) Accuracy Rating and 58.5 (No. 23) Total QBR to Matthew Stafford’s 7.5 (No. 11) Accuracy Rating and 68.8 (No. 15) Total QBR. With an upgrade at QB, Kupp will see higher quality targets and will make noise as a larger slot receiver.

Mike Evans is an elite talent, which is always valuable in fantasy football. But his ceiling is capped while Tom Brady is the signal caller for the Buccaneers and with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown running routes alongside him. He’s only getting older, and with rumors of Brady signing an extension in Tampa, his long-term dynasty situation is worrisome.

Keenan Allen was discounted heading into 2020 due to questionable QB play after Philip Rivers’ departure. Little did we know Justin Herbert would take over as signal caller and break the rookie record for passing touchdowns despite not playing Week 1. The sky is the limit for Herbert, and Allen is tied to him for the remainder of his career in LA.

When Trey Lance does become the starter, he will inherit a young skill player core, an effective run game, and a spectacular offensive line. A dream for any young quarterback and any dynasty owner. Additionally, there’s no secret what Kyle Shanahan has been able to do for the careers of his quarterbacks. His offensive creativity and Lance’s raw skillset is a recipe for a potential high-end dynasty QB1.

The Bears aren’t exactly the 49ers in terms of landing spots for dynasty quarterbacks. Last season, they had a -9.18 (No. 27) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating and an 85.9-percent (No. 16) Protection Rate. While we’ll always love Andy Dalton for his awesome 2015 stretch, we saw what he failed to do with a stacked arsenal in Dallas. Justin Fields should be expected to start within the first few weeks of the season.

Ezekiel Elliott has been a fantasy stud since entering the league, but his performance slipped badly in 2020. Using PlayerProfiler’s advanced analytics, one would realize he had an average 23.3-percent (No. 23) Juke Rate, but ranked outside the top 50 qualified running backs in True Yards Per Carry, and outside the top 40 in both Yards Created Per Touch and Breakaway Run Rate.

Over his last four starts of 2020, Elliott averaged just 59-percent of the team’s snaps. If that holds or improves, he will still provide fantasy value as the primary option in a high scoring offence. But reduce his once-dominant volume and he profiles closer to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Carson, or Mike Davis in 2021. He would be a third round player at a first round redraft ADP.

A top Pac-12 WR at USC, Amon-Ra St. Brown has the tools to become a starting receiver and brings his physicality to an appreciative Dan Campbell in Detroit. Among a WR corps with Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams at the helm and lacking an alpha, he can easily see a large Target Share immediately. He fits in as a contested catch receiver, especially with Jared Goff, who had 34 (No. 9 among qualified quarterbacks) Danger Plays and 22 (No. 12) Interceptable with the Rams last season.

At North Carolina, Dyami Brown played with Dazz Newsome and Michael Carter, two players who had shallower target depth averages with Brown operating as the deeper receiver. Now with Terry McLaurin (12.9 yards per reception in 2020, No. 47) and Curtis Samuel (11.0 yards per reception, No. 82) drawing targets and attention underneath, Brown will be able to stretch the field for Washington as well.

Age-adjusted production matters, and Travis Etienne has been the man since he was 19 years old. His production profile is nothing short of prolific. He followed his impressive freshman breakout season with two straight years of at least 1,600 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. Playing with Trevor Lawrence capped his College Dominator Rating at 25.7-percent (54th-percentile among qualified running backs), but he was efficient with his lighter workload.

While not as talented of a receiver as Travis Etienne, Najee Harris did prove he is also capable of producing in the passing game at the NFL level with his 43-reception, 425-receiving yard, and 13.4-percent (90th-percentile) College Target Share senior season. With a 5.8 (68th-percentile) College YPC average, Harris was less efficient than Etienne, but his 30.9-percent (70th-percentile) College Dominator Rating (a much more predictive metric for running backs) checks in significantly higher.

Though he joins a crowded backfield, Trey Sermon’s one-cut and go running style fits the San Francisco offense well. He played in a similar outside zone scheme in college, and will have an opportunity to carve out a role as the team’s grinder back, with upside to be the high-volume, early-down and short-yardage guy.

The Jets were a prime landing spot for a rookie running back and they chose to go with Michael Carter in the fourth round. The 5-8, 201-pounder joins a backfield without any defined roles. Carter, a one-cut and go type back, is an excellent fit in the Kyle Shanahan-style offense that Mike LaFleur will be operating.