Dynasty Leagues

Two inches taller and 20-pounds heavier than his running mate Devin Singletary, it’s become apparent that Zack Moss is the preferred goal-line option for the Bills. This puts him in the low to mid RB2 range. Josh Allen will continue to cannibalize a portion of red zone carries and the timeshare with Singletary isn’t going away. However, Moss’ touchdown upside is music to the ears of dynasty owners.

Seeing his first career start in Week 6, Albert Okwuegbunam filled in for an injured Noah Fant and tied for the team lead with six targets. He converted them into two receptions for 45 yards. Although his opportunity has decreased with Fant back in the fold, he remains on the field, running 14 routes in Week 8 and catching his lone target for a TD. The landscape of the NFL changes fast. The fourth-round rookie is a high-upside TE stash and player to monitor in dynasty leagues.

Despite some spotty quarterback play, Brandon Aiyuk is third amongst rookie WRs with 2.28 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target. Through six career games, he has also outperformed Deebo Samuel from a fantasy perspective on both a total and game-by-game basis. With Deebo out for at least the next couple of games due to a hamstring injury, look for Air Aiyuk’s dynasty stock to hit new heights.

Before activating any panic buttons, let’s refresh ourselves on Cam Akers’ prospect profile. At 5-10, 217-pounds, he owns a 39.8-percent (89th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 10.4-percent (78th-percentile) College Target Share, and a 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score. Yes, he has a three-down profile. At this point, he’s a hold for those who have him in dynasty. Those presented with the opportunity to buy this talented profile at value may be wise to take advantage.

Well, it took a few weeks, but D’Andre Swift arrived in a big way in Week 6. In the tilt against the Jaguars, Swift saw the field on 37.1-percent of the snaps, touching the ball a total of 17 times. He turned this into 123 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. With four targets, he was once again the RB target leader for the Lions. While Adrian Peterson may cap the rookie’s ceiling in the short-term, Swift looks the part of a cornerstone piece of dynasty teams for years to come.

The days of Zach Ertz being a locked-in set-it-and-forget-it TE1 have abruptly come to an end. To make matters worse, he’s now sidelined with a high-ankle sprain. Ertz is without a contract extension, and despite a lack of competition in the passing game, his performance on the season has underwhelmed. For fantasy purposes, an output of 8.0 (No. 25 among qualified tight ends) Fantasy Points per Game is not what managers expected from a player ranked on the edge of the elite TE tier.

Henry Ruggs’ explosive game last week has likely closed any buy-low window, but there may still be a chance to acquire him at value. His 12.0-percent Target Share ranks No. 86 among qualified wide receivers and he’s drawn only 11 (No. 99) targets, but he averages 2.80 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Target and 3.00 (No. 2) yards of Target Separation. With his blazing speed, big gains tend to happen when the ball is thrown his way. An uptick in targets can result in a real explosion for the Las Vegas Raider.

Through five games, Kenyan Drake has a 63.2-percent (No. 16) Snap Share. He has 85 (No. 5) carries and 16 (No. 14) Red Zone Touches. All this volume has resulted in a frustrating 10.3 (No. 35) Fantasy Points per Game; a far cry from his expected RB1 outcome. As a result, Arizona’s lead rusher has fallen to RB23 on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings, dropping over 17 Lifetime Value points. His stock is trending down and he is a risky buy-low option. He is more of a sell.

Justin Jefferson has been productive and is clearly locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role in Minnesota. Over four games, he ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers with 348 receiving yards and 126 Yards After Catch. From an efficiency standpoint, he has been unreal. He has a whopping 3.70 (No. 1) Yards per Route Run, a 1.95 (No. 28) Target Separation mark, earns 17.4 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and has committed zero (No. 81) drops. With an impressive 21.8 (No. 3) Yards per Reception, the rookie delivers chain-moving chunk plays.

Rookie Darnell Mooney has out-snapped Anthony Miller in three consecutive weeks. In Week 3, they each ran 35 routes and saw five targets. In Week 4, Mooney ran more routes and saw more targets. A possible third-year breakout candidate, Miller’s dynasty value has been trending the wrong way to start 2020. The production needs to live up to the potential sooner than later, or it will be last call for Miller Time.

The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Cam Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Darrell Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.

At 6-2, 216-pounds, Gabriel Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.

The Eagles are winless and Carson Wentz has had a forgettable the start to the season, averaging 12.7 (No. 27 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game. Philadelphia’s signal-caller is throwing the ball at an average of 42.5 times per game and has 512 (No. 18) passing yards, however his efficiency metrics are concerning. If these downward trends continue into Week 3 versus the Bengals defense, the alarm bells might be at full volume.

Ben Roethlisberger looks to have found a new favorite target in Diontae Johnson. Despite ball security issues to start each of his first two games, Big Ben has not shied away from targeting the sophomore receiver. Interestingly, Roethlisberger mentioned in an interview earlier this week that his trust and confidence in Johnson was still growing. If this connection still has room to grow, it may not be long before Johnson’s dynasty stock truly skyrockets.

A trend that unfolded in Week 1 was Phillip Rivers’ connection with his trusted slot receiver. Lined up in the slot on 55 snaps, good for a 96.5-percent Slot Rate, this receiving weapon now wears the number 15 and goes by the name Parris Campbell. Finishing as the WR27 in PPR leagues, Campbell’s nine targets matched T.Y. Hilton for the most among Colts wideouts. After a strong showing in training camp, a solid Week 1 performance has the former Buckeye’s dynasty stock on the rise.

Harrison Bryant played 31 snaps, good for a 42.4-percent (No. 44) Snap Share, in Cleveland’s Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He ran a route on 30.8-percent of his snaps and caught one of two targets for five yards. With David Njoku parked on injured reserve, an uptick in Bryant’s usage is on tap. The next three weeks (at minimum) may be enough to put him on the radar of even casual fantasy gamers. Monitor his stock closely and be ready to act.

The poster child for the 2020 sophomore tight end breakout is Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger. There are many intriguing reasons why this is the case. There is the shallow nature of the Packers passing game for a start. The team famously did little to strengthen their receiving corps this offseason, either via the draft or free agency. They signed Devin Funchess, who then chose to opt out of the 2020 season, leaving Davante Adams without any serious competition in the passing game.

Foster Moreau faces significant obstacles to increased playing time in 2019. Though Jason Witten should only last a season in Sin City, while the expected salary cap squeeze in 2021 may impact Darren Waller’s future with the team. The Raiders can release him and save the entirety of his $6.27 million salary for the season. Moreau may be able to make some noise as a touchdown-dependent player in 2020, but he can make the Raiders tight end spot his own in 2021.

At 5-11, 213-pounds, Dare Ogunbowale is a slightly bigger and more explosive version of James White. Both former Wisconsin RBs are featured in their respective passing games, finishing top-24 in Pass Snaps played last year. Ogunbowale made his limited touches count, finishing the year with 6.6 Yards per Touch, 1.32 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, and a +17.2 (No. 19) Production Premium.

Eno Benjamin landed in an explosive Arizona offense that helped three different running backs find weekly fantasy football success last season. The Kliff Kingsbury-coached Cardinals gave high Snap Shares to their starters, with an RB receiving 70-percent or more of the snaps in 13 out of 16 games. Benjamin, whose Best Comparable Player is Duke Johnson, becomes a priority target if the Cardinals again struggle to find a workhorse.