Dynasty Leagues

James Conner went down with the entire offensive ship in Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger went down to injury. Mike Tomlin has already come out this offseason stating his belief in a workhorse running back approach, confirming that if Conner stays healthy he can finish as a top tier fantasy back. If he reaches similar opportunity totals to what he saw in 2018, we’ve already seen what he can do when he finished with 21.2 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game.

Chris Carson is an underrated athlete with a 127.9 (87th-percentile) Burst Score and a 120.8 (77th-percentile) SPARQ-x score. While many believed he was more of a plodder, he proved last year that his 2018 metrics were not flukey. He posted a 4.7-percent (No. 17) Breakaway Run Rate, 85 (No. 6) Evaded Tackles, and a 27.0-percent (No. 15) Juke Rate. This behind a worse offensive line that put up a 63.8 (No. 46) Run Blocking Efficiency grade.

Last season, Derrick Henry scored 18 touchdowns for the Titans while leading all qualified running backs with 303 carries and 1,539 rushing yards. PlayerProfiler’s Data Analysis Tool calculates Expected Touchdowns for running backs and Henry had a 7.60 touchdown difference (10.4 expected). A non-factor in the passing game with 25 (No. 49) targets, Henry’s touchdown regression will make it difficult to return value on his first-round ADP.

Leonard Fournette’s 0.90-percent Touchdown Rate is unbelievable for a running back that had 265 (No. 7) carries and 316 (No. 2) Weighted Opportunities. While Derrick Henry lead running backs with 7.60 touchdowns over expectation, Fournette’s 9.40 touchdowns below expected was dead last for running backs. Sure, he won’t see 100 targets in the 2020 season, but the positive regression in the touchdown category will more than make up for the decrease in the receiving game. 

At 6-1 and 205-pounds, Marquez Callaway boasts above average marks in Speed Score and College Dominator Rating. Despite a below average 40-Yard Dash time, the Tennessee product boasted a 19.0 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR mark. Not to mention a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. The young receiver has the requisite profile and college production to make noise in the NFL.

There were few better landing spots for JaMycal Hasty; joining a 49ers squad that churns out productive backs, undrafted or otherwise. With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman leading the way in San Fran, there is little else for depth behind them. A path is clear for Hasty on a team that utilizes the receiving skills of their backs; a specialty of the undrafted rookie. Like Mostert and Matt Breida before him, Hasty looks to make his mark in the city by the bay.

Irv Smith recorded 36 (No. 23 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 311 (No. 33) yards with two (No. 33) touchdowns as a 21-year-old rookie. To put that into context, that’s No. 3 in receptions and No. 6 in yards all time for a tight end at age 21. He was able to accomplish this while having a mere 61.7-percent (No. 34) Shap Share and, per PFF, rush blocking on 43.3-percent of his snaps with a No. 22 grade out of 67 qualified tight ends. 

Tight end is considered the toughest offensive position to come into and produce right away at the pro level. Smith was able to do so as a 21-year-old rookie back-up tight end, making his 2019 season even more impressive. The combination of producing at such a young age, the athletic profile, and the current passing options on the Vikings make him a prime buy candidate before his eventual breakout.