Matchups Start/Sit

When you thought things couldn’t get worse for Terry McLaurin at the QB position, it did. Carson Wentz isn’t giving McLaurin the love his previous QBs were. McLaurin’s 16.4-percent target share ranks No. 57 among wide receivers. His 15.5-percent target rate ranks No. 83. Even the targets he is getting aren’t moving the needle. McLaurin’s target quality rating ranks No. 27 at receiver, and his 7.4 target accuracy is No. 50. But Carson Wentz injured a finger on his throwing hand and will miss 4-6 weeks. Enter Taylor Heinicke. Is Taylor Heinicke good? Not really! I thought Wentz was going to be an upgrade entering this season.

Each passing week of the NFL season means that we have more information about teams, players, and strengths and weaknesses of defenses.

Terry McLaurin has been predictable the past three weeks. He struggled against a top corner in Week 4 when he faced Trevon Diggs, put up top-30 numbers against a porous Titans secondary in Week 5, and finished with another bad performance against Jaylon Johnson and the strong Bears pass defense in Week 6.

The Saint’s 2022 QB Carousel has been frustrating for fantasy gamers, and the picture isn’t getting any clearer this week. On another short weeks rest, head coach Dennis Allen states that he wants to get Jameis Winston “…fully healthy and go from there,” and appeared pleased with Andy Dalton’s performances. The likely event is that Winston is active again as an “emergency quarterback” and Dalton gets the start. The human Red Panda is an effective real-life game manager but not an effective fantasy quarterback. He’s posted a season-high 13 fantasy points, so it’s best to look for other options even in 2QB leagues.

Pollard averaged 6.3 (No. 4) yards per touch through Week 5 and added 52 yards on 13 touches in Week 6. While he has just three top-30 fantasy finishes this season, Pollard is a threat for big plays any week as he chips away at Elliott’s workload. He’ll get a good shot at exploding Week 7 against the Lions.

Denver’s offense has often sputtered this season. Courtland Sutton has been a serviceable fantasy asset while Jerry Jeudy has been on-and-off. Russell Wilson has disappointed, leading to shaky fantasy output from Denver weapons. Facing a good secondary and a defense that has been riding high the last few games, Denver WRs are unlikely to produce a big output for fantasy.

Welcome in to the Week 7 edition of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB! This is the place where we talk all things running back streaming. Each week we discuss running back usage, matchups, and waiver opportunities to convert the least amount of capital into a playable running back position on your fantasy teams.

Justin Fields displayed great promise to end his 2021 rookie season. He posted QB1 scores in four of his last five games on the strength of great rushing metrics, a 15.5 (No. 3) Production Premium, and solid Deep Ball and Red Zone Accuracy Ratings. His 2022 QB16 ADP showed we expected him to take the next step this year. That clearly hasn’t happened, though. This is highlighted by his 13.0 Fantasy Points Per Game. This ranks him No. 27 in that category.

Happy Breece Hall dance party! We’ve been marching toward the breakout with Hall’s gradual increase in playing time and workload, but we officially got there last week. And to be honest, this breakout happened even sooner than I thought it would. Remember back in Week 1 when I wrote about how second-round rookie running backs start slow? Well, for a brief summary: rookie second-round running backs since 2012 leading up to the 2022 season that registered at least 150 touches averaged 9.8 PPR points per game in their first career NFL games. In the last five games of their rookie season? 15.62.

Tyler Lockett is matched up with Byron Murphy, who is top-20 in Yards Allowed, Yards Per Reception Allowed, and Yards Per Target Allowed. Drake London is No. 81 in Target Separation and No. 77 in Contested Catch Rate. His primary coverage, Charvarius Ward, is top-10 in Target Separation and No. 2 in Pass Break-Ups with 7.

What Russell Gage lacks in Target Share (15.3-percent, No. 59) and Air Yards (153), he makes up for with Target Separation (2.03, No. 22) and 78 (No. 42) Yards After Catch. K.J. Osborn’s lackluster 11.5-percent (N0. 85) Target Share and 15.3-percent (No. 75) Air Yards Share are countered with his 76.4-percent (No. 51) Snap Share and 162 (No. 23) Routes Run.

With Javonte Williams out, Melvin Gordon is the primary RB in Denver. He got over half of Denver’s RB opportunities last week and projects to see similar usage going forward. Gordon had three receptions last week and will have the opportunity to rack up targets against the Chargers’ lackadaisical defense against receiving backs. Chase the opportunity against a subpar defense and fire up Gordon this week

The Buccaneers are one of the better defenses against the run, allowing four rushing touchdowns in five games this season. They have also allowed four or less RB receptions in four out of those five games. Harris is an inefficient runner and relies on receptions and touchdowns to stay afloat for fantasy. He does not have a good matchup for those components this week.

Week 5 was somewhat a reversal of Week 4. Last week we discussed the “rise of the dead zone,” based on it being a soft week for RB streamers and highly drafted backs alike in comparison to mid-round options. This was what a more traditional “good RB week” looks like. The backs scored well. The top 12 and top 24 RBs outscored their receiver counterparts for the second time this season and for the second consecutive week. However, this time it was the elites of the position doing it.