Matchups Start/Sit

The Cardinals face the Cowboys this week in the game with the highest total on the slate. Despite this, Kyler projects to go slightly overlooked. Since returning from injury, he has two top six finishes but also two finishes outside QB12. The matchup is also intimidating on paper against the Cowboys defense. In the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk takes on a centerpiece role in the Cardinals offense. Yet DraftKings still prices him below $6k. Take advantage of this yet to be priced-in role change.

Budget stacks are a recurring theme in this series. In an age where daily fantasy gamers are more than happy to pay up to $7-8k for QBs, there’s significant opportunity in paying down to boost the rest of the roster. That leads us to Davis Mills. The rookie QB for the Texans has played surprisingly well this year considering a near league worst situation he’s in. With a collegiate profile indicative of a deep field threat, evidenced by his 19.7 (93rd-percentile) Yards per Reception, Nico Collins has high splash play potential creating a low bar to return value.

Jaylen Waddle has become the focal point of this offense, and he’s done this at a historic pace. The record for most receptions by a rookie is Anquan Boldin with 101 over 16 games. Waddle currently has 96 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) receptions, with two games left in the year. He is a strong WR2 and should be in all lineups for championship weekend.

It’s trending that we see more of Jeremy McNichols or even Dontrell Hilliard lined up as a receiver, or in on passing situations together to help fill the void that the team has. Nobody on Earth can replicate what Derrick Henry does on the field, but D’Onta Foreman has done an admirable job along with his teammates of creating a patchwork rushing attack, it’s just incredibly difficult to trust them on championship Sunday.

In the nine games Dalvin Cook has started and finished, he has registered at least 20 touches in eight. He has an 80.9-percent (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share and averages 5.0 (No. 25) Yards Per Touch. He was activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday, meaning he now has the golden ticket to swinging fantasy title games this week against Green Bay’s second-worst run defense per Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric.

Since Week 15, Aaron Jones has 25 carries and eight targets compared to Dillon’s 16 carries and four targets. Jones is almost doubling Dillon in routes run in that span too, with a 29-16 advantage. Dillon still saw 12 touches last week to Jones’ 17, and is as good a candidate as there is to punch in a touchdown at the goal line, but he is not a player that must be inserted into lineups anymore.

Last week, Ronald Jones put up 16.1 PPR fantasy points in place of Leonard Fournette and has had back-to-back games of 2 receptions and 70+ scrimmage yards. Jones is the clear lead back for Tampa with Fournette out and now sees an excellent matchup in Week 17 against the Jets. Expect him to run all over the Jets while seeing a few targets out of the backfield this week.

The Ravens have allowed 100 yards rushing to an opponent in one of their last seven games and allow less than 4 yards per carry. Sony Michel is coming off a huge game where he saw 28 touches. With Darrell Henderson banged up, Michel figures to carry the RB load, but opposing RBs have seen over 20 touches just twice in Baltimore’s last twelve games. Expect the Rams to air it out with Stafford this week, rather than run it up the gut against the likes of Patrick Queen and Brandon Williams.

The Miami Dolphins are on a six game winning streak and find themselves one win away from defying the impossible and joining the playoff picture. Tua Tagovailoa is on fire and has jumpstarted this offense. Jaylen Waddle looks to continue his impressive rookie season while DeVante Parker continues his career resurgence. Finally, Duke Johnson has finally been given the workhorse role he deserves.

The New Orleans Saints have been trending down week after week, and this matchup won’t get any easier for them as they are down to starting rookie Ian Book at quarterback. The rookie is unlikely to spark the passing game, making Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith very avoidable. On the flip side, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will be relied on heavily for offensive production, giving Kamara RB1 upside.

Cleveland has no choice but to ride Nick Chubb down the stretch if they want to save their season. With all that ails their passing attack, Chubb is who the offense is built around and needs to be emphasized during the next three weeks. Even though his receiving work lags behind, he’s a lock for a heavy workload and gets the No. 25-ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric. He is a locked and loaded RB1 this week.

What more is there to say about Davante Adams? His dominance is so overwhelming that the Baltimore Ravens and their depleted secondary resorted to having *two* defensive backs line up against him before the snap. He will likely see plenty of action against Cleveland’s Denzel Ward, who is PlayerProfiler’s No. 3-ranked cornerback. But as he’s proven time and time again, he is matchup-proof and will produce for fantasy gamers no matter the circumstance. Like Thanos, Adams is inevitable.

The San Francisco 49ers are rolling and looking to ride into the playoffs on a high note. Jimmy G has been playing solid football, leading George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to fantasy success. Jeff Wilson showed he’s more than capable of filling in for Elijah Mitchell. They come into the day obvious favorites against the struggling Titans.

The Titans are depleted and falling apart. The team has been ravaged by injuries, forcing D’Onta Foreman and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to take on significant roles. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both look to return tonight, but their upside is limited with how badly Ryan Tannehill has been playing. The Titans find themselves, rightfully, as home dogs in an uphill matchup.

With one of the better fantasy matchups for an RB this week, David Montgomery is set to produce for the fantasy playoffs. Despite looking better recently, the Seahawks rush defense is among the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. They allow a lot of catches to RB/FBs, giving up 5 or more receptions to opposing backfields in each of their last eight games (not including Week 15’s Tuesday night game). Montgomery has three straight games with at least five targets and has an excellent opportunity to boom this week.

The Miami running back room looks murky. Myles Gaskin did play last week, but it was… Duke Johnson (!) who got the most touches out of the Dolphin RBs. Gaskin has been the lead back for the majority of the season and was coming off a COVID absence last week. However, the insertion of Johnson and a tough opponent in the Saints cloud Gaskins’ usage. Both player’s usages look clouded as of now, and they face a tough matchup for this week of the fantasy playoffs.

The Minnesota Vikings are still in the playoff hunt and need a win to stay alive. Kirk Cousins has been accurate and productive, leading the league in Money Throws. He has pushed Justin Jefferson past the 1200 receiving yard mark already, and now supports K.J. Osborn in place of Adam Thielen. As always, Dalvin Cook dominates backfield touches and continues to smash through defenses.

The Chicago Bears are still a dumpster-fire, but a prettier looking one. Justin Fields is improving and showing a Konami skillset, but the only receiver he has made fantasy relevant has been Darnell Mooney. Allen Robinson sees a healthy Target Share, but hasn’t been able to convert on the opportunities. On the ground, David Montgomery looks to repeat his fantasy performance of 2020.

Although the Cowboys have recently struggled with the passing game, I would fire up all your Cowboys pass catchers, but temper expectations because this game is shaping up to be a lower scoring match up. With the low point total projected for the Giants offense, and the matchup problems they will face against the Dallas defense, this has all the makings of a game dominated by the Dallas running backs.

So is there a DFS dart throw available for the Giants? Sterling Shepard makes a strong case! He has a 131.2 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score, which is comparable to former Cowboy Dez Bryant. New York may be in a setting where they need to pass the ball playing from behind, so if a desperation play at wide receiver is needed, there is enough evidence to use Shepard.