Matchups Start/Sit

Ronald Darby’s combination of 13 (No. 2 among qualified cornerbacks) Pass Break-Ups, one (No. 3) TDs Allowed, and 55.6-percent (No. 11) Catch Rate Allowed has contributed to his +43.4 (No. 7) Coverage Rating this season. His 1.50 (No. 12) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target spells trouble for Deebo Samuel this week, with Darby’s 87.3 (No. 24) Passer Rating Allowed paired up with Samuel’s 90.2 (No. 69) QB Rating When Targeted.

On top of predicted game flow not being in his favor, Amari Cooper’s 25.6-percent (No. 48) Air Yards Share is less than ideal for a player on a team expected to control the game on the ground. Cincinnati’s William Jackson is a tough matchup for the opposing team’s No. 1 options. His 54.3-percent (No. 8) Catch Rate Allowed is elite and it, along with his 7 (No. 21) Pass Break-Ups, has contributed to his +36.9 (No. 10) Coverage Rating.

While the 37.2 (No. 18) Team Pass Plays Per Game is good volume, Kyler Murray has failed to hit 6.5 Yards per Attempt in each of his last three. In two of these games, he threw for less than 175 yards. In a win or go home fantasy playoff matchup, we suggest making other plans at quarterback – or temper expectations with Murray, which can work depending on roster construction. The reign as fantasy’s QB1 is over.

In three games with Taysom Hill at quarterback, Alvin Kamara has commanded six targets – or two per game. He has managed two touchdowns in that span, but prior to last week, he posted back-to-back weekly finishes outside the top-24. Without the receptions, Kamara is more of a low-end RB2 than fantasy football’s RB1. He’s created a league-leading 220.8 Weighted Opportunities thus far, but we aren’t sure how many more he’ll create moving forward.

Coming off his best game of the season, T.Y. Hilton matches up with Phillip Gaines, the third-worst ranked cornerback on PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Hilton has back-to-back games with 70-plus Air Yards after totaling 73 from Weeks 6-10. It’s easier to convert Air Yards into receiving yards when Hilton is covered by a backup thrust into the starting lineup than it is against his Week 11 primary coverage, Jaire Alexander.

With 19 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and a +10.2 (No. 23) Production Premium, fantasy football managers can be assured that the targets Tim Patrick receives produce quality fantasy football points. Charvarius Ward, his projected primary coverage for Week 13, struggles at preventing big plays. His 14.6 Yards Per Reception Allowed, 9.0 Yards Per Target Allowed, and 112.2 Passer Rating Allowed are outside the top-55 qualified cornerbacks.

In spite of averaging 31.1 (No. 29) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and totaling 321 (No. 20 among qualified quarterbacks) Pass Attempts, Kirk Cousins proves to make the most of his opportunity with 23 (No.7) passing touchdowns. As pointed out by Around The NFL’s Gregg Rosenthal, Cousins is demonstrating a Jameis Winston-esque all-or-nothing mentality in 2020, totaling 1,663 (No. 7) Completed Air Yards thus far. Fortunately for fantasy managers starting him, he’s totaled just 11 interceptions as well.

Don’t look now, but Jordan Reed has commanded six targets in consecutive games from Weeks 10 and 12 – after returning from injury Week 9. While he’s a part-time player, typically totaling a 40-percent Snap Share, Reed’s Target Rate sits over 30-percent in the aforementioned games. Last week, he led the 49ers offense with 84 Air Yards, and he has a 19.0-percent (No. 9) Air Yards Share on the season. This week, Reed faces a Bills defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Cole Beasley is fantasy football’s WR24 and you didn’t even know it. Rostered in just over 51-percent of ESPN leagues, Beasley is the No. 2 receiver for QB6 Josh Allen. John Brown won’t play this week, and this Chargers-Bills implied point total is the third-highest as well. Don’t let Beasley rot on waivers! He’s coming off his best game, a 27.9-point performance against the Jets before the team’s Week 11 bye, but he’s also totaled at least 11.0 PPR fantasy points in all but three games.

With Todd Gurley ruled out for Week 12, Brian Hill faces the Raiders in a matchup with the second-highest implied point total of the week. Adding juice to the matchup is the fact the Raiders defense fields the worst Rush DVOA thus far and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. If the inefficient Gurley, offering no receiving value, can average 13.9 (No. 18 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game while creating 137.9 (No. 11) Weighted Opportunities, Hill can’t be worse.

At 6-4, 223-pounds, Michael Pittman has the prototypical size that the Indianapolis Colts lack in their receiver core. Combined with his 111.2 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score and 10.24 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius, he is a red zone threat for Philip Rivers to target. Kevin King is Pittman’s primary coverage this week and he plays his first game since Week 4 due to a quad injury. King struggled before his injury, hence his low spot on the cornerback rankings.

The Patriots-Texans game has an O/U set at 49 points, and only three games on the slate have a higher projected total. On top of that, the Texans are a Vegas underdog playing at home in a dome. While Brandin Cooks has out-targeted Will Fuller in each of the last three games, it doesn’t matter. Expected to play from behind in a dome against weaker primary coverage means that Fuller is a wide receiver to start in a high-scoring game.

Remaining injury-free to this point of the season has allowed Will Fuller to reach his fantasy football potential. His dominance is represented in his +26.7 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and 28.4-percent (No. 18) Dominator Rating. Sidney Jones’ sample size is too small for his stats to qualify among cornerbacks, but his 14.5 Yards Per Reception Allowed is a problematic stat when matching up with a deep threat such as Fuller.

A touchdown in Week 2 prevented Marvin Jones from scoring under 10.0 fantasy points in each of the first five games despite Kenny Golladay missing the first two. Since then, he has scored 13.0 or more fantasy points in both of his games and had his two best showings as it relates to Air Yards. Fortunately for Jones, Minnesota’s primary coverage for him this week is Kris Boyd, who draws the start with the Vikings missing most of their cornerbacks due to injuries.

Since Dak Prescott’s devastating injury, Amari Cooper has not topped 62 Air Yards in a game, and now third-string rookie Ben DiNucci is the starting quarterback. With DiNucci under center, the Cowboys have the second-fewest Implied Vegas Points (18.00) this week. Darius Slay ranks in the top-10 with 9.4 (No. 5 among qualified cornerbacks) Yards Per Reception Allowed and 5.8 (No. 8) Yards Per Target Allowed.

Volume is key to fantasy production, but Keenan Allen’s -29.2-percent (No. 97) Target Premium, 7.27 (No. 48) Target Accuracy, and 81.6 (No. 81) QB Rating When Targeted reveal that he benefits more once he has the ball in his hands rather than catching longer passes that defenses fear. While he may see the same target volume he’s become accustomed to, Bryce Callahan’s 1.20 (No. 5) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target will make it a disappointing performance.

Coming off a No. 4 finish at his position on a Bengals team averaging 46.0 (No. 2) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a league-leading 293 pass attempts, Joe Burrow is a suitable bye-week replacement for Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray. Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 17 in DVOA and has allowed at least two passing touchdowns to signal-callers in every game since Week 2. You can do worse than Burrow.

A bet on Denzel Mims this week is a bet on talent. Mims finally made his pro debut last week, totaling a 97.8-percent Snap Share, seven targets on 26 routes run (26.9-percent Target Rate), and four receptions for 42 yards. The Jets average 37.7 (No. 12) Team Pass Plays Per Game, while the Jets-Chiefs implied point total sits at 49 AND the Jets are 19.5-point underdogs. This indicates the potential for a decent amount of scoring and that the Jets will have to pass to keep up.

Despite an in-season coaching change, Calvin Ridley’s role in Atlanta’s offense remained unchanged. He ran 38 routes last week, which was the second-most he has run in a game this season, and finished as WR10 despite teammate Julio Jones receiving more targets and finishing as WR2 on the week. Jeff Okudah is the equivalent of an open door to wide receivers he covers. On the season, he has allowed 294 receiving yards on 138 Routes Defended.

Matt Rhule, the former Temple coach, has unlocked his former Temple player Robby Anderson, who has excelled in his high-volume role this season. Wide receivers have had their way against Patrick Robinson in his two games with New Orleans. Last week, he struggled to contain Jalen Guyton and his 4.44 (83rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard Dash speed. Good luck stopping Anderson and his 4.41 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash speed.