Matchups Start/Sit

The opportunity has always been there for Logan Thomas. The former quarterback has recorded a 92.5-percent (No. 4 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share, a 17.1-percent (No. 11) Target Share on a team averaging 40.3 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game, a 95.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation mark, and a 17.3-percent (No. 68) Target Rate. Adding Thomas is a bet on Kyle Allen to consistently target him with catchable passes. If you need a tight end, you can do worse than Thomas against the Cowboys.

Through three games, Trey Burton has totaled 16 (No. 30) targets on 58 (No. 43) Routes Run, good for a 27.6-percent (No. 25) Target Rate. While the Colts average 34.7 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game, the team ranks No. 16 in tight end targets. That isn’t an elite allocation of targets to the position, but it’s enough to keep Burton fantasy relevant if his usage remains comparable after his bye.

The Cowboys average 49.4 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays Per Game with a leaky defense. In fact, they’ve trailed in every game except their most recent entering the fourth quarter. That’s good (or not so good) for a -7.91 (No. 29) Game Script mark, indicating they have to pass and score to keep up. Dak Prescott’s Supporting Cast Efficiency – now supporting Andy Dalton – is a sturdy +5.6 (No. 16), while he graded out with a 90.0 (No. 6) Protection Rate.

Although the Panthers average 37.2 (No. 18) Team Pass Plays Per Game, Teddy Bridgewater has attempted 178 (No. 11) passes. With 1,461 (No. 6) passing yards, Bridgewater may be due for slight positive touchdown regression. He’s thrown only six (No. 22) touchdown passes thus far. The Panthers offense sit No. 9 in DVOA, including No. 10 in pass DVOA, highlighting Bridgewater’s touchdown misfortune.

Pierre Desir’s 92.9-percent Catch Rate Allowed is the worst among cornerbacks that have been targeted more than three times. Wide receivers covered by Desir average 3.14 yards of Target Separation Allowed when the pass arrives at the wide receiver. That will prove problematic for Desir once again this week with DeAndre Hopkins averaging 2.04 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) yards of Target Separation.

Jeff Gladney is credited with allowing the most yards per route cover (2.46) according to PFF. Tyler Lockett averages 0.54 (No. 14) Fantasy Points Per Route Run and 37 (No. 16) Routes Run per Game. There are 30 cornerbacks with a higher Slot Rate than Gladney’s 25.8-percent mark. Of those cornerbacks, only four allow more than the 14.8 Yards per Reception that Gladney does. Good luck stopping Lockett in the slot.

Speaking candidly, there isn’t a singular thing that Isaiah Ford does great, per se. However, with bye weeks here, he’s a viable bye-week replacement with a floor. He has a 91.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, an 8.1 (No. 85) Average Target Distance, and zero (No. 119) Deep Targets for the Dolphins thus far. This indicates he has a semblance of a floor, with the majority of his targets occurring near the line of scrimmage.

Playing on an offense averaging 44.2 (No. 3) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a respectable 11.1 (No. 49) Average Target Distance, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Olamide Zaccheaus to start converting his opportunities into touchdowns. If Julio Jones is ruled out, it’s Calvin Ridley taking on the opposing defense’s No. 1 corner. That alone opens up softer coverage and potential spots in the defense for Zaccheaus, who has logged 41 (No. 66) Yards After Catch thus far, to exploit.

Averaging 12.5 (No. 26) Fantasy Points per Game, David Montgomery is in line to become a full-time player – 70-percent Snap Share or higher – with a slight uptick in touches. He averaged 14 carries and three targets per game before Tarik Cohen’s injury. Hurting Montgomery’s case, though, is that the Bears rank in the bottom half of the league with 19 running back targets. Montgomery is a volume-based RB2 moving forward. If he can push for 20 touches with Nick Foles at quarterback, his fantasy football outlook is optimal.

Despite the great opportunity, Evan Engram’s production is lackluster. He has a 35-percent (No. 10 among qualified tight ends) Slot Rate with 56 (No. 5) Slot Snaps, emphasizing his passing game utilization. He’s commanded 20 (No. 7) targets on a Giants team averaging 40.7 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Lastly, his Target Share is decent at 18.9-percent (No. 9), though he only has a 17.9-percent (No. 48) Target Rate. Basically, he’s not commanding a dominant share of the targets, nor is he targeted on a dominant rate of the routes he runs.

Kenny Golladay secured a 22.6-percent (No. 20 among qualified wide receivers) Target Rate in his first game back from injury and averaged 2.53 (No. 16) Fantasy Points Per Target. Lattimore allows 18.6 (No. 69) Yards per Reception. On the other side, Golladay averaged 18.3 (No. 4) Yards per Reception last season. It feels weird to say that Lattimore is the cornerback matchup to target here, but his 2020 season has been downright horrible. This is a wheels up situation.

To say that Tavierre Thomas has struggled in 2020 is an understatement. His 23.1-percent Burn Rate is fourth-highest among all cornerbacks, while his 139.1 Passer Rating Allowed is only better than 11 cornerbacks in the league. CeeDee Lamb averages 1.90 (No. 46) Fantasy Points Per Target, while Thomas allows 2.50 Fantasy Points Per Target. Amari Cooper may receive more targets than Lamb this week, but Lamb will do more with each of his targets than Cooper will against Denzel Ward.

Through two favorable matchups Mitchell Trubisky currently ranks No. 15 among qualified quarterbacks in Fantasy Points per Game, just outside QB1 territory. He’s recorded 14 (No. 6) Red Zone Attempts, eight (No. 9) in Deep Ball Attempts, and 8.7 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt. Through two weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 97 passing attempts and Bengals tight ends have drawn a 21.6-percent Target Share. With C.J. Uzomah out for the rest of the regular season, Drew Sample walks into a prime opportunity to soak up most, if not all, of that target share. Remember, this Bengals regime spent a second round pick on Sample in last year’s draft. Through two games, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Christian Kirk is due for a smash week. He has a healthy 35.3-percent (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share with 132 (No. 9) Unrealized Air Yards. Basically, he’s seeing deep looks but he and Kyler Murray have failed to connect on many thus far. If not Week 3 because of injury, Kirk will have a smash game soon. Murray ranks No. 8 with nine Deep Ball Attempts but just No. 28 with a 22.2-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage. This will change.

Through two games, the Colts have averaged 37.0 (No. 16) Team Pass Play Per Game. Mo Alie-Cox has a 23.5-percent (No. 24) Target Rate, indicating he may be a focal point of the gameplan against the Jets early on before Game Script comes into play. Through two weeks, his eight targets rank No. 3 among active Colts pass-catchers. In addition, his 11.3-percent (No. 24) Target Share ranks No. 2, while his Target Rate ranks No. 1. Basically, he isn’t running empty routes.