Sleepers

Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs surprised many in the NFL and fantasy world this week, naming seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco as their starting running back. Thus, supplanting 2020 first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire. After fantasy managers spent the following days getting Pacheco onto rosters and starting lineups, on Sunday, despite the Chiefs putting up 44 points, Pacheco laid an egg: eight rushes for 43 yards, no scores, and no targets.

This is the Waiver Wire Week 8, and wow, yesterday was a tumultuous day for Breece Hall managers. Maybe you drafted him in dynasty as the 1.01 in all formats- even Superflex. Perhaps you drafted him in redraft as a fifth-round steal. Either way, you played it perfectly. You filtered out all of the noise, the “bad landing spot” narrative, and the hilarious “crowded backfield,” arguments. Through six weeks, and despite a mediocre Jets offense, Hall was RB7 overall and the focal point of a winning team. He had league winner written all over him. This past Sunday, he ripped off a 62-yard TD run on the road in Denver. Things were going great, and then disaster fell- a knee injury. 

When you thought things couldn’t get worse for Terry McLaurin at the QB position, it did. Carson Wentz isn’t giving McLaurin the love his previous QBs were. McLaurin’s 16.4-percent target share ranks No. 57 among wide receivers. His 15.5-percent target rate ranks No. 83. Even the targets he is getting aren’t moving the needle. McLaurin’s target quality rating ranks No. 27 at receiver, and his 7.4 target accuracy is No. 50. But Carson Wentz injured a finger on his throwing hand and will miss 4-6 weeks. Enter Taylor Heinicke. Is Taylor Heinicke good? Not really! I thought Wentz was going to be an upgrade entering this season.

Each passing week of the NFL season means that we have more information about teams, players, and strengths and weaknesses of defenses.

Terry McLaurin has been predictable the past three weeks. He struggled against a top corner in Week 4 when he faced Trevon Diggs, put up top-30 numbers against a porous Titans secondary in Week 5, and finished with another bad performance against Jaylon Johnson and the strong Bears pass defense in Week 6.

Welcome in to the Week 7 edition of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to RB! This is the place where we talk all things running back streaming. Each week we discuss running back usage, matchups, and waiver opportunities to convert the least amount of capital into a playable running back position on your fantasy teams.

Justin Fields displayed great promise to end his 2021 rookie season. He posted QB1 scores in four of his last five games on the strength of great rushing metrics, a 15.5 (No. 3) Production Premium, and solid Deep Ball and Red Zone Accuracy Ratings. His 2022 QB16 ADP showed we expected him to take the next step this year. That clearly hasn’t happened, though. This is highlighted by his 13.0 Fantasy Points Per Game. This ranks him No. 27 in that category.

Week 5 was somewhat a reversal of Week 4. Last week we discussed the “rise of the dead zone,” based on it being a soft week for RB streamers and highly drafted backs alike in comparison to mid-round options. This was what a more traditional “good RB week” looks like. The backs scored well. The top 12 and top 24 RBs outscored their receiver counterparts for the second time this season and for the second consecutive week. However, this time it was the elites of the position doing it.

This week was the revenge of the Running Backs in a couple of ways. First of all, they simply scored more points. For the first time this season, the top 12 running backs of the week outscored the top 12 wide receivers of the week. As for who scored those points, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Only three of the top 12 RBs were drafted as top 12 RBs, while six of the top 12 WRs were drafted as such. That being said, seven of the top 12 RBs were drafted top 24 at the position, and only Jamaal Williams qualified as a “streamer” among the top 12 finishers. This was by far the worst streaming week of the year.

With three of Detroit’s top offensive weapons out – Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark and D’Andre Swift, their 21 weekly targets had to go somewhere. In Week 4, they went to T.J. Hockenson who put up a tight end week for the ages. On a career-high 12 targets, he posted 179 yards and two scores. Even WR Josh Reynolds, former Rams buddy of Jared Goff, carried a share of the load with seven catches for 81 yards and a score. Of course, PlayerProfiler’s weekly projections told you beforehand that both would shine.

Perhaps you have Kyle Pitts and had to suffer through an Arthur Smith galaxy-brained game plan of him being out-snapped by Parker Hesse (87-percent to 62-percent). Maybe you drafted Javonte Williams in the second round and were so excited about his upside next to new QB Russell Wilson only to suffer through a largely forgettable first four weeks and now a season-ending torn ACL. Or perhaps you drafted Jonathan Taylor with a top-two pick only to suffer through three straight fantasy duds including this week’s 42 yards rushing on 20 carries. Now Taylor is dealing with an ankle injury.