Stefon Diggs has had back-to-back seasons of 160+ targets and 100+ catches. Back-to-back seasons with 1,225+ yards and 8+ touchdowns. His quarterback is Josh Allen and he plays in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. The lack of target competition in Buffalo, combined with his role in the Bills’ offense will result in Stefon Diggs being this year’s No. 1 fantasy receiver.
Are we sure the shiny new rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave will outscore Russell Gage? Sure, fans of PlayerProfiler know we love to lean into the uncertainty and chase ceiling outcomes. But there is no Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in this 2022 receiver class. Let’s embrace certainty here and take the guy catching passes from the GOAT.
It’s prudent to dive into the numbers and key metrics to project a player’s prospects in fantasy. But if you want to keep it simple, Russell Gage is locked into no worse than the No. 3 spot in Tom Brady’s pecking order. This isn’t just “another Brady receiver” with far too much preseason hype that we’ve all been burned by. Gage is being drafted at his floor, and early on in the year, WR1 spike weeks aren’t out of reach. His ADP may correct itself down the line. For now, let your fellow drafters take Chase Claypool, Christian Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Push the button and cash in on Gage.
The Davante Adams trade rightfully triggered a tsunami of fantasy takes and analysis. Much discussion was centered around Derek Carr and his inability to support Adams at the production-clip we’ve become accustomed to. There was little focus on the fact that Lazard is the heir to the Adams role in the Green Bay offense. You may ask, “What makes you so sure Lazard will be Green Bay’s No. 1 receiving option in 2022?” The addition of Sammy Watkins and lingering likelihood of another WR add via the draft make this a valid question. The simple answer: history, plus the fact that he fits the GB WR1 prototype.
The pre-requisites to become Aaron Rodgers’ top target are straightforward: alpha size, plus-athleticism, and proven NFL-level dependability. Barring a big-time trade for a veteran, the only player that will meet these criteria on the Packers roster in 2022 will be Allen Lazard. The glaring dissimilarity between Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams and Lazard is draft capital. Both were selected in the second round while Lazard went undrafted. Lazard’s closest comp., Marques Colston, proves it’s possible to overcome low draft capital with a similar profile and skillset.
Fantasy football is obsessed with “alpha” receivers who look dominant and can make monster contested catches. However, this provides an opportunity to find cheaper alternatives that will outperform ADP and ultimately help win leagues. Targets score fantasy points. And these receivers have “alpha” production, while coming at “beta” price points.
Brandin Cooks is consistently overlooked in the fantasy football community, and size is a big reason. 2021 was quietly a career year for Cooks, in which he posted highs in targets and receptions. Davis Mills also flashed in his rookie season, and will pay dividends for both the Texans offense and Cooks if his development continues in 2022. It also helps that Cooks is an elite-athlete who has 4.33 (98th-percentile) speed and a 98th-percentile Agility Score.
Snoop Conner is a big dude at around 5-10 and 220-pounds. But he did not play a big role as a college football player. His career best Dominator Rating was the 17.9-percent he posted last season. Only a 32nd-percentile mark among third-year college runners who would go on to be drafted since 2007.
Again we see Miles Sanders popping up in the comps list of a total JAG running back (he shows up a lot because he’s average and therefore is relatively comparable to lots of players in the meaty portion of the bad-to-good bell curve). Nick Chubb is the best player here and Conner is the busted ass version of him. He’s bad and you should feel bad if you like him. Turn the film off and touch some grass.
It’s not a good look that it took D’Vonte Price four years to break out at Florida International. When it did happen though, it was emphatic. His senior season 40.2-percent Dominator Rating is a 90th-percentile mark for fourth-year college runners. Albeit in a five game season on a team that went winless in Conference USA.
D’Vonte Price is neither a good receiver nor runner, and he also wasn’t an impressive college producer. There just isn’t much indication that he’ll be a quality NFL player. I’m not interested in dynasty rookie drafts.
North Carolina’s Ty Chandler spent most of his college career at Tennessee. There, he shared time with everyone from John Kelly to Eric Gray. When Javonte Williams and Michael Carter buoyed their success as Tar Heels into quality draft capital, Chandler saw it and said, “omg goals.”
Ty Chandler’s name is boring, his career was boring, and his skills are boring. Given all that, I’m sure there’s some keyboard hero out there preparing a Twitter thread to show off his pad level and contact balance as we speak. Ignore the information shared here: that is the analysis you want to hone in on. Ty Chandler for RB1.
C.J. Verdell blew up early on in his college career. He went for over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his redshirt freshman and redshirt sophomore seasons. He missed some games while dealing with injuries as an upperclassman in 2020 and 2021. But his 28.8-percent per-game Dominator Rating as a redshirt senior last season was actually the highest of his career.
C.J. Verdell was a productive college player who was fraudulently propped up as a future NFL stud by over-eager devy enthusiasts. He’s probably a JAG. Hoping he becomes Jay Ajayi or Miles Sanders is misguided, given that those guys aren’t really that good either. A JAG with volume is good for fantasy, but it’s not very predictable (at least pre-draft). Look elsewhere in your rookie draft.
Oklahoma State’s Jaylen Warren is the next subject in a series in which I evaluate 2022 rookie running backs solely on their ability to run the ball. Where he really shined was in the open field. He turned an 81st-percentile rate of his chunk runs into breakaways of 20+ yards. His career 38.0-percent Breakaway Conversion Rate is on par with the college rates of guys like Kenny Gainwell, C.J. Spiller, and Joe Mixon.
Jaylen Warren simply deserves more hype. He’s by no means a perfect prospect. But he’s a rocked up dude at sub-5-9 and 215-pounds. He was productive at three different college programs. And he was as efficient a college runner as some of your favorite sleeper runners of the past few years. Seeing as he got a Combine invite, the NFL is at least tentatively interested. In the late rounds of your rookie draft, you should be too.
Fresno State’s Ronnie Rivers is the next subject in a series in which I evaluate 2022 rookie running backs solely on their ability to run the ball. According to my running back model’s composite Rushing Efficiency Score (which accounts for all the non-BAE metrics covered here, in addition to overall team quality, offensive line play, strength of opponent, and rushing volume), he earns a 44.9 out of 100.
A five-year contributor at Fresno State, Ronnie Rivers is neck-and-neck with Alabama’s Brian Robinson as perhaps the most super of all the seniors in this year’s running back class. He had a good career in a mediocre conference. But that resumé is a dime a dozen among NFL players. He is not worth a selection in rookie drafts, and is unlikely to ever be fantasy relevant.
