Sleepers

It has become apparent that landing spot takes are not a very effective measurement of opportunity. Sure, landing spots or new coaches can smell like fantasy gold, but there are better advanced metrics that offer a closer look at who is really getting golden opportunities for your fantasy roster. Let’s find some 2022 breakout wide receivers using one of the ultimate tools of opportunity: Hog Rate.

Hog Rate alone can’t solely predict a breakout. It can certainly point you in the direction of wide receivers who have their offense’s attention while on the field. Which means more opportunities to produce fantasy points. It is no coincidence that these elite-tier guys have significant Hog Rates. So as you start drafting for 2022 and looking at trade targets, don’t forget these three names.

How to lose a Tony Pollard rookie card. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson cannot co-exist.

D.K. Metcalf is better off with Russell Wilson under center. Amon-Ra St. Brown is dominating D’Wayne Eskridge, Josh Palmer, and Amari Rodgers.

Christian McCaffrey paid the ultimate price for becoming a bell cow.

Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton are big play receivers.

A.J. Dillon has an incredible amount of upside and showed glimpses of greatness when he did see opportunity in 2020. Ranking No. 18 among qualified running backs last year in Expected Points Added (EPA), his upside is worth taking up a spot on your bench in 2021. Not to mention that he has some of the biggest quads I have ever seen. Do yourself a favor and draft A.J. Dillon in 2021.

It is clear that injuries can never be predicted in the NFL. However, it is also clear that if anything happens to Ezekiel Elliott in 2021, Tony Pollard is an immediate RB1. Furthermore, he has serious potential to win fantasy leagues if Elliott misses time. And while it is hard to say how much true opportunity he will have while Zeke IS healthy, his ability to create big plays and score high in fantasy makes him a high-end handcuff in 2021.

Chris Evans is a good athlete with the size and contact balance to be a productive runner in the league. He possesses the skills to be a reliable contributor on passing downs as well, whether it be as a receiver out of the backfield or in the slot, or in pass protection. Given the opportunity to finally put it all together, Evans can wind up as the ultimate diamond in the rough out of the 2021 class.

Elijah Mitchell is a good all-around back. He’s fast with elite explosiveness and he’s elusive enough to make the first tackler miss. He profiles as a committee back who can emerge as a playmaker in the passing game. Draft capital will likely come mid-to-late day three. He’s certainly a top candidate to be this year’s late-round diamond. He can fall into a lead job on a weak depth chart that sees its top back go down early.

Elijah Mitchell’s production is fine on the surface, but nothing exceptional for a small-school prospect when looking at the stats. Elite production is a staple for small school players since they play weaker competition. However, Mitchell battled and out-produced three other NFL-caliber players in college. This proves his talent. Also, his production could have been among the best in the nation if not for sharing a field with them, which is why context is so important when evaluating rookies.

Although Mitchell didn’t excel at any trait, it’s essential that he is well-rounded being that he’s a late-round, small school player. This is why his athletic testing could make him the biggest value pick in the class. If he can run fast with the size, production, and receiving ability, he becomes a late-round rookie pick who has NFL workhorse potential. It’s rare to find players with a complete profile like this in the third round or later in rookie drafts.

Chris Evans’ profile hits many important metrics which can translate to the NFL. This suggests that if he goes in the middle rounds of the NFL Draft, he will start his career as a backup but could be a productive RB2 if he can ever become the starter on his team. He has shown the ability to effectively rush and catch passes, but he has never put it all together at the same time. If he can do it at the next level, he’ll become a quality fantasy asset.

The 6-4, 215-pound Nico Collins has the size to be a starting outside receiver in the pros. In addition, this size means he is likely to have an upper-percentile Speed Score if his 40-yard Dash time is even average. He sports a 19.7 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR and a 19.5 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If he can pair that size with great athleticism, he’ll have the most upside of any late-round rookie receiver in this class.

Donald Parham isn’t on everyone’s radar. Though his Snap Share increased late in the season, he never once eclipsed four targets in 2020. With Hunter Henry likely out of the picture, L.A. may opt to draft a tight end or add one in free agency. Even so, Parham has a legit shot at the starter spot in a best-case scenario and would make for good depth in the worst case. Either way, the man needs to be rostered in dynasty leagues.

Despite being the fourth or fifth receiving option on a team that averaged 32.9 (No. 29) Pass Plays per Game, Harrison Bryant had some impressive metrics. He averaged 8.7 (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) yards of Average Target Distance and drew five (No. 20) five Deep Targets. Furthermore, he posted a, 88.9-percent (No. 11) True Catch Rate. He’s sure to have a breakout sophomore campaign if given the snaps to operate.

At 5-10 and 216-pounds, Damien Harris shows quickness. He posted above average marks in Speed Score and Burst Score, with a 4.57 40-Yard Dash that ranks in the 56th-percentile among qualified running backs. With Sony Michel out for the foreseeable future due to a quad injury, Harris becomes a focal point of the New England ground attack. Once Cam Newton returns, the offense will become more productive. This is a boon for Harris, who can take some of those goal line carries.

In 2018, Harris caught 22 passes on 23 targets for 204 yards at 9.2 yards per reception. Yes, he had a 5.3-percent (27th-percentile) College Target Share, but he did share the backfield with Josh Jacobs during that 2018 season. Jacobs himself had 20 receptions for 247 yards that year. The floor with Harris will be solid, and the touchdowns will come. Adding a few receptions per game isn’t out of the question, and would be a boon for the back and those who roster him.

Over the past two seasons, Nyheim Hines has demonstrated that he’s competent enough to take advantage of a plus situation. He has averaged 5.4 yards per touch on an average of 68 carries and 69 targets per season. With the switch to Philip Rivers comes a positive switch in the allocation of positional targets. Last year, the Rivers-led Chargers led the league with 182 RB targets after ranking in the top-5 the year before with 141 targets.

Coming off a 63-catch campaign on 85 targets in 2018 as a rookie, Hines followed that up with a 44-catch season in 2019. In fact, he has a sneaky chance to rival Christian McCaffrey as the leader in catches among running backs. Unlike with the Los Angeles Chargers the past two seasons, Hines is the only back for the Colts that will fill the pass-catching role. This may end up making him close to a full-time player depending on Game Script.