Sleepers

Washington State’s Max Borghi has been a name well-known in devy circles for a few years now. Given his pass-catching acumen (and, let’s be honest, his complexion), he was receiving hype as the next Christian McCaffrey early on in his college career. The people were a little out over their skis on that one. But general excitement about Borghi hasn’t been completely unwarranted.

From a valuation standpoint, Borghi’s chance to hit the high-end of his range of outcomes doesn’t seem that different than other pass-catching types in this class, like Tyler Badie or Jerrion Ealy. He’s got good size for a satellite back. If you’re looking to throw darts in deep leagues, you could do worse than a guy who was impressive as a producer, runner, and receiver in college.

Florida State’s Jashaun Corbin is a theoretically enticing running back prospect given his sizable receiving role and sizable, well, size. He caught 60 passes in 35 college games, a 72nd-percentile rate among backs drafted since 2007. And he was listed at 6-0, 221-pounds on the Seminole roster in 2021. It’s probably true that he is a fine pass-catcher. But the rest of the profile for the former 4-star recruit is not what it seems.

Put simply, Jashaun Corbin was bad in college and the players who were similar to him in college have either been bad in the NFL or fallen ass-backwards into volume for a year before then continuing to be bad. He also has the lowest Rushing Efficiency Score of any back on this list; the comps can’t even keep up with how terribly he ran the ball. My expectation for Corbin, therefore, is that he also is bad in the NFL. The takeaway here is that you absolutely should not waste a rookie pick on him.

South Carolina’s ZaQuandre White has had a Dora the Explorer-like route through college football land. He started out in the swampy marsh (Florida State), pulled the map out of his backpack and made his way to the big corn field (Iowa Western Community College), then said goodbye to his friends in JUCO-ville before strapping on his red boots and meandering back over to where he started in the sunny south (South Carolina, to be specific).

White is a relatively slimly built guy with underwhelming production. But he was an Austin Ekeler-caliber player at the JUCO level. He catches passes, and he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands. With a first name that kinda sounds like a bizarro version of Saquon, ZaQuandre White might be my new favorite full-skillset dart throw in this running back class.

Mississippi Rebel Jerrion Ealy is a fun eval. Dude came into college as a 5-star recruit in football AND one of the top baseball prospects in the country. He spent three years catching a lot of passes and breaking a lot of tackles. While his production profile is underwhelming, his play-to-play ability is evident in his per touch efficiency metrics.

Jerrion Ealy is a far better receiver coming out of college than most of these guys were as prospects. He should have an easier time finding an NFL role than someone like Jaret Patterson. However, if the best player on your comps list is Darren Sproles, you probably won’t be fantasy-relevant. Ealy simply must be bigger come the Combine. With a prospect profile that doesn’t even stand out within his archetype, he’s not the droid you’re looking for.

It has become apparent that landing spot takes are not a very effective measurement of opportunity. Sure, landing spots or new coaches can smell like fantasy gold, but there are better advanced metrics that offer a closer look at who is really getting golden opportunities for your fantasy roster. Let’s find some 2022 breakout wide receivers using one of the ultimate tools of opportunity: Hog Rate.

Hog Rate alone can’t solely predict a breakout. It can certainly point you in the direction of wide receivers who have their offense’s attention while on the field. Which means more opportunities to produce fantasy points. It is no coincidence that these elite-tier guys have significant Hog Rates. So as you start drafting for 2022 and looking at trade targets, don’t forget these three names.

How to lose a Tony Pollard rookie card. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson cannot co-exist.

D.K. Metcalf is better off with Russell Wilson under center. Amon-Ra St. Brown is dominating D’Wayne Eskridge, Josh Palmer, and Amari Rodgers.

Christian McCaffrey paid the ultimate price for becoming a bell cow.

Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton are big play receivers.

A.J. Dillon has an incredible amount of upside and showed glimpses of greatness when he did see opportunity in 2020. Ranking No. 18 among qualified running backs last year in Expected Points Added (EPA), his upside is worth taking up a spot on your bench in 2021. Not to mention that he has some of the biggest quads I have ever seen. Do yourself a favor and draft A.J. Dillon in 2021.

It is clear that injuries can never be predicted in the NFL. However, it is also clear that if anything happens to Ezekiel Elliott in 2021, Tony Pollard is an immediate RB1. Furthermore, he has serious potential to win fantasy leagues if Elliott misses time. And while it is hard to say how much true opportunity he will have while Zeke IS healthy, his ability to create big plays and score high in fantasy makes him a high-end handcuff in 2021.

Chris Evans is a good athlete with the size and contact balance to be a productive runner in the league. He possesses the skills to be a reliable contributor on passing downs as well, whether it be as a receiver out of the backfield or in the slot, or in pass protection. Given the opportunity to finally put it all together, Evans can wind up as the ultimate diamond in the rough out of the 2021 class.

Elijah Mitchell is a good all-around back. He’s fast with elite explosiveness and he’s elusive enough to make the first tackler miss. He profiles as a committee back who can emerge as a playmaker in the passing game. Draft capital will likely come mid-to-late day three. He’s certainly a top candidate to be this year’s late-round diamond. He can fall into a lead job on a weak depth chart that sees its top back go down early.

Elijah Mitchell’s production is fine on the surface, but nothing exceptional for a small-school prospect when looking at the stats. Elite production is a staple for small school players since they play weaker competition. However, Mitchell battled and out-produced three other NFL-caliber players in college. This proves his talent. Also, his production could have been among the best in the nation if not for sharing a field with them, which is why context is so important when evaluating rookies.

Although Mitchell didn’t excel at any trait, it’s essential that he is well-rounded being that he’s a late-round, small school player. This is why his athletic testing could make him the biggest value pick in the class. If he can run fast with the size, production, and receiving ability, he becomes a late-round rookie pick who has NFL workhorse potential. It’s rare to find players with a complete profile like this in the third round or later in rookie drafts.