This is the Post-Season AFC South Report! Where does each AFC South team stand as they enter the offseason? What will each team do in the NFL Draft? What does each team need to do to position themselves better in 2023?
D’Andre Swift finds himself locked into a running back committee. Regardless of whether the Lions are managing his reps or prefer Williams as a primary ball carrier, Swift has disappointed in 2022. On the year, Swift is averaging 13.0 fppg (No. 20) with five TDs (No. 18). Williams has drastically cut into his production in the touchdown department with a league-leading 13 scores. While Swift has dealt with injuries in his young career, this current dip in value may be a solid opportunity to buy at a discount. After all, he has still produced an elite 1.22 (No. 2) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity with a True Yards Per Carry of 5.0 (No. 12). Still just 23 years old, Swift’s dynasty value loses 45.44 Lifetime Value points to slip two spots to RB5.
With Fournette ruled out in Week 12, it was Rachaad time. He earned 80-percent of Tampa’s RB carries and all their targets. Though not particularly efficient running, his 64 yards on 14 carries were buoyed by a 35-yard gain on his second carry, and his nine catches on nine targets for 45 yards helped him to 19.9 fantasy points. With this a second consecutive 100-yard performance, the Rachaad White genie is officially out of the bottle. Even when Fournette returns, White will get a good share of touches and may have taken a firm grasp of the receiving role.
When the Patriots are able to run and do they want to run, Stevenson scores fantasy points. His 129 carries heading into Week 11 sat No. 13 and his 24 Red Zone Touches No. 2. Though he has only a modest 95.5 (48th-percentile) Speed Score, his 11.24 (69th-percentile) Agility Score has helped him to a 6.2-percent (No. 18) Breakaway Run Rate. But even when the Pats can’t run, Stevenson scores, anyway. He’s seen 49 targets on the year and a 17.1-percent (No. 5) Target Share.
Christian Watson is a touchdown machine! In Week 10 he played 85.2-percent of snaps catching 4 of 8 targets for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns. His breakout game rewarded patient fantasy managers with 32.7 fantasy points (WR2). On Thursday night versus the Titans, he added two more scores making it five touchdowns in the last two games. Watson has quickly become Aaron Rodgers preferred Red Zone target. The second-round selection out of NDSU gains 38.38 Lifetime Value points and 21 spots to vault to WR41 in dynasty.
Despite ranking in the top ten at tight end, Pat Freiermuth has failed to record double-digit fantasy totals in three of the Steelers’ last four contests. There is a chance that the fantasy manager that rosters Freiermuth isn’t thrilled to move on. However, given the lack of boom weeks, the window to buy may have cracked open enough. If there is a chance to buy into the Pittsburgh tight end then teambuilders should make a move.
As we approach the final stretch of the season, I only want to invest in players that I am confident in their ability to retain fantasy relevancy into next season. Dameon Pierce is top-10 in Opportunity Share (73.6-percent) and Dominator Rating (29.9-percent) with room to grow his role in the receiving game (No. 22 in targets).
The problem is the Falcons would rather not throw the ball ever to anyone. They take forever to snap the ball (No. 30 in Pace of Play), and when do eventually snap it, they run it (No. 3 in Team Run Plays per Game, No. 30 in Pass Attempts). This has been the case even when Cordarrelle Patterson is on the sidelines. On the season, they’ve chosen to hand to the ball to plodding backup rookie back Tyler Allgeier twice as many times as they’ve thrown to Pitts.
As we approach the end of the season, our strategy on Prediction Strike shifts towards finding guys that not only can make money in the next 3-4 weeks, BUT also will grow in future seasons. Enter George Pickens.
Posting his fourth consecutive top-8 fantasy QB finish against Miami Sunday, Fields completed 60-percent of his throws with three passing scores. But that wouldn’t be nearly the half of it. His insane 178 rushing yards on just 15 carries was the greatest regular-season rushing performance by a quarterback in NFL history and just three yards shy of Colin Kaepernick’s playoff outburst 10 years ago.
