Analytics & Advanced Metrics

D.J. Chark didn’t play much in his rookie season. But, he broke out in 2019 to the tune of 73 receptions on 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. After finishing 2019 as the WR16 in fantasy football, he tumbled to a WR50 finish and was the WR42 on a per-game basis. That is not going to get the job done at all.

I personally believe that the 2019 D.J. Chark is closer to the real thing. Though his 2020 season was concerning, the 2019 season is the one we’ve seen him start and finish without a myriad of injuries. If he really is a receiver of the caliber he showed that year, and lands in a situation conducive to fantasy success, he will get back to putting big-time numbers. That scenario is very much in his range of outcomes, making him a buy in dynasty and best-ball leagues before free agency kicks off.

Simply, the Titans have one of the most run-happy offenses in the league, regardless of situation. It’s a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg question to ponder whether that philosophy would persist if Henry was not on the team (though their situational rush rate over expectation was still +8-percent in games he didn’t play last year), but he’s under contract for another three years. The Titans should remain one of the highest volume rushing teams in the NFL in 2022.

Very often, the decline for top-tier running backs comes suddenly and without warning. With that in mind, the performance that Derrick Henry gave us last year should be viewed as a gift. While still providing your fantasy teams with elite raw production, he whispered in the ears of anyone listening that the end is coming. It may come with one last 1,000-yard swan song at 4.1 yards per carry. But it’s better to be out early than late. The reign of King Henry is coming to end.

After running the ball the third-fewest times in the league in 2020, the Detroit Lions upped their rushing volume a bit last season under new head coach Dan Campbell. Two years ago, they averaged 22.9 attempts per game. In 2021, they ran the ball an average of 25.1 times per contest. That average ranked No. 21 in the NFL, and was a carry-and-a-half lower than the league-wide 26.6 average. In their ideal world, Detroit would probably run the ball more than they actually have.

I don’t want to overreact to one season of poor play. But at this point in D’Andre Swift’s NFL career, the 2021 season represents 50-percent of his games played and almost 60-percent of his total carries. I loved Swift the prospect as much as anyone.But let’s exercise some caution. Don’t crown him just yet.

New England is simply a run-heavy team, and they have been since Tom Brady left following the 2019 season. While the development of Mac Jones and the departure of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might mean a slight change in gameplan, the Bill Belichick establishment is still holding strong. And it’s probably reasonable to anticipate the Patriots rushing at least slightly more often than league average in 2022.

If I’m on the clock in the middle rounds of a dynasty startup, I’m probably letting somebody else pull the first trigger on a Patriot running back before I scoop up the other guy. If I’m holding Damien Harris on an existing roster, I’m looking to pivot to Rhamondre Stevenson through trade while adding some sort of rookie pick or lottery ticket taxi stash. The difference is small, but I think Stevenson is the better long-term bet.

The RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon. The guys you have generally not heard from before stop in to drop some tidbits from their weekly game charting process in hopes to give us a sneak peek into the depth of the games each Sunday. This week will be strictly based on teams headed for the playoffs and how our charters perceive them entering the NFL Playoffs.

Elijah Mitchell has been a great story in 2021. Congrats if you found him… (no, I made the mistake of drafting Trey Sermon!) During the upcoming offseason, though, quietly see what you might get in return. His price may never be higher. Don’t start any Bears other than David Montgomery. The new coaching staff and GM in 2022 will have to try to build around him and Justin Fields.

Javonte Williams will be an RB1 in 2022. But don’t feel too bad if you missed Williams but have Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead. He won’t see the same volume but, barring injury, will see enough action to be a reliable RB2. Don’t worry about Jalen Hurts. When his ankle heals, he’s Philadelphia’s starter.

The Cowboys will only go as far as Dak Prescott takes them. Fortunately, most of their remaining schedule is against the NFC East – pass funnels all and all mostly just bad defenses. Expect Dallas to throw, throw and throw. Even though Tony Pollard would get more playing time if the Cowboys choose to rest Ezekiel Elliott, we must focus on Dak and the Cowboys receivers the rest of the way.

The once-vaunted Steel Curtain defense hasn’t been any good, giving up 41 points per game and over 900 yards combined in their last two losses. They’re now in last place. And there are no more Bears, Lions or Geno Smith-led Seahawks on the horizon. No Steelers are Must-Starts the rest of 2021. In the upcoming off-season, move any or all Steelers from your dynasty rosters. It’s going to take more than one piece to complete this Pittsburgh puzzle.

If you think back to training camp, a different Elijah was the talk of the NFL town. It was the Jets’ Elijah Moore, with one of the most impressive college metrics profiles you’ll find; Start him every week. It doesn’t matter who’s at QB or if the Jets lose out. He’s the team’s best receiver and will someday be their first Pro Bowl receiver this century.

Enjoy watching this generation’s most complete, exciting running back. I hope you followed PlayerProfiler and Breakout Finder’s Advice and selected Jonathan Taylor at 1.01 in last year’s dynasty rookie drafts. If you followed the herd and went Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead, don’t say we didn’t warn you!

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon.

In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see how the Dolphins will respond to a fairly easy schedule. In the next 4 game stretch, the Dolphins play the Jets twice, the Giants, and the Panthers. All 4 are very winnable games. Could the Dolphins be 7-7 heading into Monday Night Football against the Saints on Dec 27th? How will Flores handle the QB situation since he doesn’t seem to have supreme confidence in Tua? Will pass-catchers like Wilson and Ford consistently step up or will it continue to be the Jaylen Waddle show? As stated previously, it will be an interesting next few weeks for the Miami Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa is improving – though his season-long Passer Rating is only 87.3, he’s been at least 95.1 in 3 of his last 4 games and has some great matchups coming up. Jaylen Waddle quietly leads the league in Routes Run and is top-12 in Targets, Receptions, True Catch Rate, and Yards After Catch. And he’s catching 70-percent of his targets. The Dolphins DST is worth a flyer. DST scoring is about turnovers. Miami is starting to create them again and won’t face another high-scoring team the rest of the year.

On a team with no quarterback and no receivers, D’Andre Swift managed to put up 130 rushing yards against the Steelers. As a team, they did manage to put up 229 yards rushing and two scores. Heading into today’s game, he led the league in Target Share, Receptions, and was No. 2 in Receiving Yards. He is No. 3 in Yards Created. He’s a star but, because of his team, get less attention than he deserves. In dynasty, overpay if doing so can get Swift onto your team. Offload any and all parts of this Steelers passing game.