Analytics & Advanced Metrics

For the last 20 years, when considering the “money” performers at the quarterback position, the first name to mind has been Tom Brady. It should therefore surprise no one that Brady led all quarterbacks with 46 Money Throws in 2020. They accounted for 8-percent of his pass attempts for the season (610). Brady completed almost three times as many Money Throws as he threw Interceptable Passes (19).

At the other end of the scale, having a quarterback who can’t deliver the money plays can seriously impact a team’s hopes of success in a given year. Of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, Nick Mullens of the 49ers had the lowest number of Money Throws. He managed just four (No. 40 among qualified quarterbacks) from his 326 (No. 29) attempts (one-percent).

The number of RB1s have contracted over time, culminating in a brutally small RB1 tier in 2020 with only three RB1s, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry. The RB1 tier is getting narrower and further away from the rest of the pack. The league-winning RBs are hitting harder now than in years past, but they are more scarce than ever before.

The difference between WR3s and WR2s is relatively smaller than the difference between RB2s and RB3s, furthering the hypothesis that the top-36 wide receivers are a tighter and deeper group than their counterparts in the RB position. Both running backs and wide receivers have small groups of elite top-end talent that only a portion of a fantasy football league will be able to snag. There are fewer RB1s and WR1s than there are spots in a 12 team fantasy league.

Game Script does not show the skill of a certain player, but the opportunity they receive. For example, the Steelers ranked No. 8 in the 2020 season. This can be credited to their defense, but it goes to show the type of workload Najee Harris will receive in 2021. However, the Colts ranked No. 9 in Game Script and No. 20 in passing attempts last year. This doesn’t bode well for Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and crew to get much opportunity this season.

A player/team whose Game Script and passing attack favors him for the 2021 season would be CeeDee Lamb and crew. The Cowboys ranked No. 27 in Game Script and No. 1 in Pace of Play last year. This is a recipe for fantasy point-scoring, and fantasy gamers everywhere should be picking up pieces of this Cowboys offense throughout the offseason.

In 2020, Emmanuel Sanders led the NFL with a 110.9-percent True Catch Rate, and that’s not a typo. What does this tell the RotoUnderworld audience? Despite a 67.1-percent (No. 97 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate and 6.04 (No. 108) Target Accuracy, Sanders was able to utilize his 10.29 (92nd-percentile) Catch Radius to haul in a majority of his targets, even those deemed uncatchable. He caught 61 passes even though only 55 targets were deemed catchable.

Last season, Denzel Mims finished the season with a 51.1-percent (No. 103) Catch Rate. Box score hunters see this stat and assume “This guy can’t play and is a bust.” Mims’ 88.5-percent (No. 29) True Catch Rate and 14.1 (No. 12) Average Target Distance add context to his situation. A quarterback upgrade in 2021 would lead to an increase in Mims’ 57.8-percent (No. 107) Catchable Target Rate in 2020, and thus increase his Catch Rate that box score hunters overvalue.

The cornerback with the league’s highest Burn Rate, Jaylon Johnson faced several top-end wide receivers in his 13 games played in 2020. Meanwhile, he managed a +36.5 (No. 13 among qualified cornerbacks) Coverage Rating and 16 (No. 4) Pass Break-ups. We have a mix of notable receivers that performed well against Johnson in Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, and Justin Jefferson. Interestingly, we find low production from A.J. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling with Johnson covering them.

On the flip side, let’s look at Jaire Alexander, who allowed a 0.0-percent (No. 1) Burn Rate, tying with several other defensive backs. Meanwhile, he ranked No. 2 with a +54.9 Coverage Rating and No. 1 with 18 Pass Break-ups. Alexander dominated. Overall, it’s wild to think he didn’t allow a single burn against Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, Will Fuller, and Allen Robinson twice. 

Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones led the way in 2020 with 4.9 True YPC averages. With a whopping 378 carries, King Henry nearly doubled Jones in attempts and still managed the same stellar average. In fact, Henry posted the highest True YPC for any RB seeing over 200 carries in the last three seasons. Rounding out the top performers are Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor.

In his rookie campaign, J.K. Dobbins led the league with a dazzling 5.4 True YPC average. Boosted by a No. 1-ranked 8.2-percent Breakaway Run Rate, his True YPC should be expected to dip as he earns more work. However, this elite average gives him plenty of room to stay in the upper echelon. He produced an impressive 2.18 (No. 3) Yards Created Per Touch with a 30.9-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate.

Last season, both Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette saw roughly the same amount of snaps in the Buccaneers offense. However, Jones was the preferred fantasy option, averaging over two points more per game. His production was largely driven by seeing more than 15-percent more opportunities than Fournette. This Opportunity Share was the reason to be “on him” in 2020.

What many seem to be overlooking about Joe Mixon is his opportunity monopoly on an ascending Bengals offense. Last season, he saw an 81.5-percent (No. 2 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share during his six active games. Additionally, when he last played a full season in 2019, he saw a 77.1-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share.

Production Premium is particularly helpful when assessing players after they change teams in free agency or are traded. Two players, both making their way to new teams in 2021, featured among the top seven last season while on their old teams. Nelson Agholor posted a +26.3 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium, while Corey Davis delivered a +24.3 (No. 7) mark.

At the other end of the scale, the Arizona Cardinals may have bid against themselves in signing former star A.J. Green. His 2020 campaign showed a player a long way past his best. He was neither productive, nor efficient, and finished with a -37.0 (No. 89) Production Premium.

J.K. Dobbins’ high marks in Run Blocking Efficiency and Yards Created Per Touch tell us he took advantage of running lanes and created yards on his own. He and Gus Edwards will likely share touches in 2021, and hopefully, Dobbins earns more opportunities in the receiving game to add to his fantasy production. The Ravens running backs, particularly Dobbins, seem like a rare case where a player creates yards while also benefitting from their offensive line. 

In PPR leagues, Myles Gaskins’ receiving production boosted him to RB1 status, helping him average 16.4 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game. But unless there’s a major improvement in performance across their offensive line, he and the other Miami running backs may need to create yards on their own to remain productive. 

In 2020, Mark Andrews was in on 67.1-percent of the team’s offensive snaps. This was No. 26 among qualified tight ends in terms of Snap Share. His teammate Nick Boyle recorded a 66.7-percent share of the offensive playing time. But Boyle saw just 17 (No. 59) targets in his ten games. Andrews drew 89 (No. 9) targets. This worked out to a target per snap, or Hog Rate, of 4.7-percent for Boyle and 15.4 percent (No. 9) for Andrews.

Jordan Reed, whenever he took to the field, was a focal point of the 49ers offense. He only logged a 36.9-percent (No. 74) Snap Share. But he posted a position-leading 19.7 percent-Hog Rate. As a result, he was able to average 0.44 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Route Run. He benefitted from Kittle’s missing time, of course. But his Hog Rate told fantasy managers that he could be plugged in as a potential streamer thanks to his usage.