Analytics & Advanced Metrics

At 6-3, 229-pounds D.K. Metcalf runs a 4.33 (99th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard dash, which clocks in a tenth of a second faster than Tyreek Hill. He is the definition of freak athlete. Through Week 6, Metcalf averages 22.5 (No. 1) Yards per Reception, while also recording 377 (No. 5) Completed Air Yards and drawing 13 (No. 4) Deep Targets. Facing a stout 49ers defense and carrying the second-highest salary among receivers ($7,500), he’s an intriguing main slate GPP play for Week 8.

JaMycal Hasty has garnered nine carries in consecutive weeks, but needs to make a living in the passing game to gain fantasy relevance. He’s seen one target in each of the past two games, which won’t keep him afloat. He’s still worth an add in deeper redraft leagues given the overall success of the 49ers backfield. His dynasty outlook trends up too, and he shouldn’t be tough to acquire given his lack of a breakout game.

Through five weeks, Kenyan Drake averages 13.3 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game and is currently underperforming based on expectations and ADP. Last week helped since he reached a season-high 28.4 (No. 2) fantasy points after scoring a 69-yard rushing touchdown to salt away the game. On the flip side, Chase Edmonds averages 10.4 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game and is closing in on Drake’s fantasy point totals with much fewer opportunities. 

We might as well let our pet turtle decide on which Rams running back to start because logic doesn’t appear to apply much here. The Rams average 31.3 (No. 6) Team Run Plays per Game, and typically that’s a positive note for running backs. However, when they split up these plays between three running backs in Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, it messes things up for fantasy football purposes. 

Chase Claypool’s rapid rise among a stacked 2020 receiving class includes eye-popping production and advanced metrics. At 6-4, 238-pounds with 4.42 speed and a 131.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score, he’s a threat to score on any given play. Following another solid outing in Week 6 with 4-74-0 receiving and 2-7-1 rushing, he ranked No. 1 in the PPI for the allotted time period.

Derrick Henry remains the king of stiff arms and 90-plus yard TD runs. Contending dynasty squads should try to take advantage of his age (26.8) and ranking outside the top-12 dynasty RBs to try and acquire him. With Tennessee running the ball at the third-highest clip in the league, Henry is locked in as an every-week start in all seasonal formats. With the Titans facing the Steelers in Week 7, keep an eye on his DFS rostership for a potential leverage spot.

Mark Ingram is a 30-year old running back with a 16.7-percent (No. 39 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate, and Gus Edwards is limited to a specialized role as an early down grinder. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins has a 32.0-percent Juke Rate and has run 57 (No. 36) routes, more than Ingram and Edwards have combined. What makes Dobbins’ outlook in particular so promising is that he, unlike most running backs stuck in a committee, does not necessarily need an injury to earn a workhorse role.

Anthony McFarland ran a 4.40 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash at 208-pounds, sported an elite 3.99 College Yards per Team Attempt, and jumped out as a later-round steal in Graham Barfield’s College Yards Created analysis for the 2020 class. On 10 NFL touches, McFarland’s Juke Rate is a gaudy 40.0-percent. In case you aren’t intrigued enough, Pittsburgh ranks No. 9 in offensive EPA/play as of Week 5.

In 2020, all but three of the receivers in the top 12 have an Average Depth of Target below 10.0 yards, and all three rank in the top 7 in YAC. One of the top fantasy wideouts is Calvin Ridley, ranking No. 1 in standard scoring and No. 3 in PPR leagues. He currently has a 16.0 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) aDOT and ranks No. 1 with 13 Deep Targets. Ridley also ranks No. 7 with 349 receiving yards, but ranks No. 31 with 71 YAC.

On the other side is D.J. Moore; pegged by many fantasy analysts for a big season. The third year wideout comes in with a 12.8 (No. 27) aDOT, having recorded 288 (No. 16) receiving yards and six (No. 14) Deep Targets. Moore ranks No. 40 in standard scoring and No. 31 in PPR formats. While he draws an average of eight targets per game, the 7.2 (No. 22) Target Quality is an issue, especially given his measly 32 (No. 80) YAC. 

Carson Wentz hasn’t been great for fantasy in 2020, but he hasn’t been terrible. In Weeks 1-3, he’s recorded 15.0, 14.4, and 23.5 fantasy points. Look at his EPA though, and you’ll see that his -22.6 ranks second-lowest of all quarterbacks through three weeks, in front of only Sam Darnold. With three passing TDs, six INTs, and a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt, Wentz will need to step it up if he wants to remain the starter in Philadelphia.

EPA has been added to PlayerProfiler to help you become a more well-rounded football fan, but more importantly, to help you get better at dynasty. Jalen Hurts is a Konami code QB with elite speed and burst, but he’s stuck behind 2017 MVP finalist Wentz. Utilizing EPA, we can now see that Hurts is a great dynasty stash. Not just for his rushing ability, but because the guy in front of him on the depth chart has “added” -22.6 points to his team thanks to his erratic throws and poor decision-making.

Myles Gaskin’s player profile doesn’t scream elite talent, but he’s seeing the most meaningful touches in Miami’s backfield and making the most of them. He has see 47.9 (No. 8 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities through three games, and while he hasn’t produced a breakout game, one is on the horizon. Gaskin has caught 15 of 16 targets, good for a 93.8-percent (No. 6) Catch Rate. He also hasn’t found the end zone yet, which will change soon given the weight of his touches.

On the other end of the spectrum, Mark Ingram’s slow start can be traced back to his unimpressive 21.9 (No. 45) Weighted Opportunities. While has seen six (No. 35) Red Zone Touches through the first three weeks, none came from inside the 5-yard line and they resulted in only one (No. 29) touchdown. He’s also drawn only four (No. 54) targets. This much is clear: Ingram no longer possesses workhorse back upside, and should not be viewed as anything more than a middling RB3.

Mark Andrews ranked No. 23 among qualified tight ends in Route Participation with a 55.1-percent rate last year. Through 2 weeks in the post-Hayden Hurst era, that rate has jumped to 82.0-percent (No. 9). If he carries over anything close to his efficiency from last year, Andrews will smash in this new role. You’re obviously starting him if you have him, and he is an easy buy-high candidate.

We expected a big season from T.J. Hockenson this year, but the Lions have surprisingly only unleashed him for a route on 70.7-percent (No. 19) of their passing attempts in 2020. Having caught 100-percent of his targets through two games, he might be a sell-high candidate if the low Route Participation number fails to creep up.

Nick Chubb’s fantasy football value should’ve never been questioned after Week 1. Against an inferior defense in Week 2, the Browns offense did what fans wanted to see, dominate. A third of Kareem Hunt’s touches, though, came on the Browns’ second-to-last drive of the game, including nearly 50-percent of his total yardage. Hunt managed only eight touches prior to this. This is an important note for fantasy gamers with Hunt on their roster.

On the heels of a report that he’s on his way out of Cleveland, Odell Beckham captivated fans and teammates with his 43-yard touchdown grab on Thursday night. Beckham paced the Browns’ receiving corps in all major receiving categories as well. He led the way with six targets, four receptions, 74 yards, and a touchdown. No other receiver totaled more than three, indicating Beckham is the alpha in the offense. That’s important considering Kevin Stefanski deploys a run-first attack.

Will Fuller just needs to stay healthy and he will easily put up career marks in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He has played in 14 or more games in a season just once, though he is healthy for now. With his injury history baked into his WR31 ADP, he will pay that off even if he misses time, provided his Week 1 Target Share holds up. The upside with Fuller relative to his ADP is that if he stays healthy, he’s contending for a top-12 finish at his position in fantasy football.

Sammy Watkins again came in hot in Week 1, pacing the Chiefs pass-catchers with nine targets. This is a mirage. However, if Watkins stacks a few more of these games together, we’re looking at potential Flex appeal. In the offseason, it was reported that Watkins held off Mecole Hardman for the No. 2 receiver job. After one week, it’s impossible to confirm this, but monitor him closely in the coming weeks for signs of a usage pattern.