Analytics & Advanced Metrics

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have already traded Stefon Diggs away, leaving a 30-year-old Adam Thielen as their only proven commodity at wide receiver. In addition to Diggs’ departure, which will undoubtedly affect the efficiency of that passing game, the team has only two remaining starters from last year on the defensive side of the ball. With a weaker offense and defense, expect Minnesota’s offense to have to pass more this season, especially in the early portion.

While projections still do not have the Ravens surpassing 500 passing attempts, 63-percent of the 43 teams who attempted less than 500 passes since 2011 did increase their attempts by at least 30 the following season. Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 400 times while leaving early in five games due to blowout victories. With more competitive games coming in 2020, and with a now healthy Marquise Brown, Jackson can repeat his fantasy history breaking 2019.

The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team features Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and now Mecole Hardman. The combination of explosive weapons and the unbelievable talent/play of Mahomes has led to a mere 3.3-percent checkdown rate. Clyde Edwards-Helaire projects, at best, to be the No. 3 option on this team, but how will he take away from Watkins and Hardman?

We have learned over the years that the number one factor for a fantasy running back is volume, and Helaire does not possess the same volume upside as the backs now being drafted around him. It seems the argument for him is mainly situation-based. DeAndre Washington is there with a similar profile and has already had productive games in the NFL. Darrel Williams could also take away goal line work. CEH should still be drafted as an RB1 for the 2020 season, but Buyer Beware.

Julio Jones has been a dominating force for the last nine seasons. One whom few players can be classified with or compared to. In 2019, he became the fastest wide receiver to reach 12,000 yards, surpassing Jerry Rice by a whopping 17 games. Jones is currently sitting at No. 25 all-time in receiving yards. He’s 1,000 yards short of greats such as Torry Holt, Andre Reed, and Steve Largent, and only 2,200 yards away from the Top-10. 

In 2019, Jones led the Falcons with a 25.7-percent (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, up almost three-percent from 2019, while Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley finished together with around 18-percent each. Ridley lacks the ability to pull away after the catch, ranking No. 72 with 131 Yards After Catch, while Jones and Hooper finished in the Top-10. Ultimately, it’s unlikely that Ridley will be a threat when competing for the WR1 role in Atlanta.

Joshua Kelley posted a 4.49 (80th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash with a 104.3 (78th-percentile) Speed Score, as well as a College Dominator Rating in the 77th-percentile. There’s a lot to like about the rookie’s profile. At 5-11 and 211-pounds, he has a bit more size than Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson; a fact that could potentially lead to a Melvin Gordon-like role. There are enough available carries to go around that Kelley will be able to produce in year one.

Ito Smith has a solid player profile with above average metrics and a 4.50 (77th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. In addition, the third year pro has had a difficult time staying healthy, and his 99.4 Fragility Rating ranks at No. 1 at the running back position. If Smith can remain on the field, however, his talent level supersedes that of Brian Hill and Quadree Ollison, indicating he is the best bet to garner productive carries behind Todd Gurley.

Christian Kirk was supremely active in the red zone last year for the Cardinals but only came away with one red zone touchdown. Based on his Red Zone Target Share and Red Zone Receptions, that number should have been over five. With any luck, Kirk’s potential decrease in volume due to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins can be more than offset by positive reversion in efficiency. Go get him before it’s too late.

Given Courtland Sutton’s opportunity last year, he should have scored over five red zone touchdowns. Instead, he only scored three. Chase the opportunity. His 28.2-percent Red Zone Target Share was tied for No. 6 among wide receivers with ten or more games played. However, among those players, Sutton’s three touchdowns ranked last. Denver invested heavily in the offense this offseason, but players such as Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are not immediate red zone target magnets.

The New York Jets have made an effort to build up the offense around quarterback Sam Darnold in 2020. Though Robby Anderson departed for Carolina, the Jets responded by adding Breshad Perriman in free agency and Denzel Mims in the draft. Perriman is a more than capable replacement for Anderson. As for Mims, the Baylor product should become an instant favorite of Darnold’s, and a true target hog. 

Will Fuller is the true, lone incumbent of this Houston reveling crew, and has established rapport with Deshaun Watson. His health is a constant question mark, but there is no question what he is capable of when healthy. In 2019, the wideout carried an astounding 84.5-percent (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate through his 11 games played. If there is to be a sole beneficiary of the available targets, Fuller is the best bet.

Draft capital is extremely important for wide receivers. After that, age-adjusted college production isn’t just the most important metric, it’s the only one that matters. Aside from maybe Speed Score, athleticism doesn’t matter for wide receivers. College market share numbers look more predictive of a breakout season than college efficiency, although our ideal prospect will have both.

Our highest profile bust candidate is easily Henry Ruggs, whose strong draft capital does not do enough to mask the spotty college production profile. Of our 55 breakout wide receivers with at least one season of 15 Fantasy Points per Game or more, only college quarterback Julian Edelman and college wide receiver/running back Wes Welker posted a lower College Dominator Rating than Ruggs’ 17.5-percent (17th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) mark.

Draft capital is extremely important for running backs. After that, College Dominator Rating and Breakout Age are the most important metrics. Speed Score is the most important and predictive Combine metric that we have for the position. There are also thresholds for College YPC (6.0) and College Target Share (10.0-percent) we should want our running backs to meet when looking for breakout candidates.

Those looking for a sleeper running back should look no further than Antonio Gibson. He was incredibly explosive when he received touches, posting an 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC mark with a 12.7-percent (88th-percentile) College Target Share. He certainly fits the mold of a breakout running back candidate being in an ambiguous backfield and possessing pass-catching chops.

Quarterback is the position where college efficiency metrics matter the most. Hand size, weight, and BMI are poor predictors of future fantasy success. Height and Wonderlic Score can be ignored when evaluating quarterback prospects. Athleticism matters when trying to evaluate a quarterback’s rushing potential. Other than College QBR and draft pick, there are not a ton of easy ways to identify values in rookie quarterbacks, at least from a fantasy perspective.

Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick, so the draft capital is not on his side, but he has tremendous upside if Carson Wentz misses time and he gets a chance to start. His collegiate resume features an 11.3 (98th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) College YPA, an 89.7 (95th-percentile) College QBR, and fantastic athleticism indicated by a 125-inch Broad Jump and 4.59 (95th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash.

Joe Mixon is among the most talented running backs in the NFL. He finished No. 1 among qualified running backs with 103 Evaded Tackles. He also finished with a 32.9-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate, and 576 (No. 2) Yards Created. Entering his contract year with the additions of Joe Burrow and last year’s injured first round pick Jonah Williams, Mixon is primed for a top ten fantasy finish.

The Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s initially expected to ride the bench in the early going. In Tyrod Taylor’s three seasons starting for the Bills, he averaged a 94-525-5 line as a rusher. He also finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2016 with Lynn as his offensive coordinator, so there’s familiarity there. If Taylor were to start the entire season, he would be hard-pressed to hit 500 pass attempts as part of a slow, conservative group.