Analytics & Advanced Metrics

The 2017 RB class has an average College Dominator rating of 32-percent, three percent higher than the 2020 class average. In the first three rounds of the draft, 2017 RBs average out at 34.5-percent. This eclipses the 31-percent mark of the 2020 class. Of the RBs drafted in 2017, 38.5-percent (10 out of 26) had a Dominator greater than 35-percent. The 2020 RB class has five players (29.4-percent) above this mark: Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Zack Moss, and Eno Benjamin.

The 2020 class as a group has an average Speed Score of 103.9 overall and 108.3 for players drafted in the first three rounds. Seven out of the 10 rookies drafted by Day 3 of 2020 have Speed Scores over 100, with Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s 103.5 (74th-percentile among qualified running backs) being the floor. Only three RBs had Speed Scores higher than Vaughn’s for the first three rounds of the 2017 draft: Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and D’Onta Foreman.

Athleticism matters a great deal for predicting fantasy success at the tight end position. Height-Adjusted Speed Score is the most important athleticism metric, followed by the agility drills (3-cone and 20-yard shuttle) that comprise the Agility Score and explosion exercises (broad/vertical jump) that comprise the Burst Score. Metrics such as Catch Radius, Athleticism Score, and SPARQ-x also do a good job of summarizing a player’s overall athleticism and predicting a tight end’s chances of NFL success.

Albert Okwuegbunam is intriguing. We don’t have his Catch Radius, and his 11.8 Yards per Reception fell just below the threshold we look for, but his 129.6 (99th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Speed Score and 31.2-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating indicate that he is poised to be a fantasy stud.

An early Breakout Age increases the chance that a wide receiver will have a successful NFL career. Of the wide receivers selected in 2014, 14 of them (41-percent) had a Breakout Age of 20 or younger. The 2020 class holds an edge with 18 prospects drafted (or 51-percent) meeting the same breakout threshold. Another notable trend for the 2020 class is that half of the players with early Breakout Ages were selected in Round 4 or later. In 2014, only two wide receivers selected on Day 3 of the draft had an early breakout.

Speed Score places a premium on 40-time, but also factors in body weight and length. The 2020 class has 17 players (49-percent) with a Speed Score of 100 or higher. A handful of rookies did not run the 40-yard dash at the 2020 Combine, so it is possible that this class more 100-plus Speed Score WRs. Even so, this represents the highest number of receivers with a Speed Score of 100-plus drafted in a class in over 10 years. In comparison, 14 players (41-percent) met this threshold for the 2014 group.