Contracts & Free Agency

Aaron Jones has had back-to-back seasons finishing in the top-10 among qualified running backs in Weighted Opportunities, allowing him to finish as RB4 and RB3 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 and 2019, respectively. A.J. Dillon and his 5.9-percent (33rd-percentile) College Target Share is incapable of replacing Jamaal Williams’ role in the passing game. Jones’ 242 (No. 17) Routes Run are destined to increase and will offset any carries lost to Dillon in 2021.

The sell-high window on Dillon did close when Jones resigned, but now the buy-low window on Dillon has opened. Jones, 27 years old in December, is unlikely to play out his contract which goes into his age-30 season, and would see his 2023 cap hit balloon up to $19.25 million. Find the panicked owners in leagues that are impatient and acquire Dillon at a bargain price.

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag ($31.41 million) on Dak Prescott for him to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. A horrific broken ankle shortened his season. So why did the team take a perceived risk on a player coming off a catastrophic injury? Despite my slight mathematical error, the Cowboys could not afford the cap hit of a franchise tag on Prescott in 2021.

Want to see the fantasy football impact of a franchise quarterback? Look no further than the team’s top two pass-catchers last season, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott’s five starts, Cooper finished with four top-24 wide receiver performances, and Lamb finished with three top-24 wide receiver performances. Both played in all 16 games; in 11 games without Prescott, Cooper had four top-24 wide receiver performances and Lamb only had one top-24 wide receiver performance.

Carson Wentz is a value in dynasty leagues because the perception of him is that he’s damaged goods. Those who have him in dynasty should hold. His value is the lowest it’s been in his career. He has one year in a better situation to turn his NFL career around. If struggles in 2021, it doesn’t change the value that cratered in 2020. But if he puts up a solid campaign in his age-29 season, then he regains significant trade value.

Don’t worry about a drop-off in Miles Sanders’ receiving volume; his 4.33 targets per game were identical in games that Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts started. After a disappointing 2020 season, he’s set to be a high-volume running back with better rushing opportunities provided by his run-threat quarterback, while still being involved in the passing game.

While Irv Smith will not see that many targets in a slow offense that averaged 34.8 (No. 25) Team Pass Plays per Game, his 25.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Red Zone Target Share was higher than all but four of last year’s top 12 tight ends. Kyle Rudolph will vacate 37 (No. 39) targets when he is released. With 70 targets a reasonable expectation in 2021, and provided he continues to stay involved in the red zone, Smith will become the latest late-round, league-winning tight end.

PlayerProfiler followers know that Matt Kelley and the RotoUnderworld team LOVE Adam Trautman. His rookie season did not see him dominate in the box score, but the analytics and advanced stats were promising. He did not record enough stats to qualify for ranking in many of our metrics, but his +6.1-percent Target Premium and +24.6 Production Premium reveal a more efficient option in the passing game for the Saints than the departing Jared Cook.

Chris Godwin and/or Antonio Brown leaving the Buccaneers is a guarantee, and it opens a starting spot for a team that averaged 40.5 (No. 10) Team Pass Plays per Game. The next man up would be Scott Miller, who had the year’s quietest 500-yard receiving campaign. Finishing 2020 with averages of 1.90 (No. 34 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run and 1.93 (No. 37) Fantasy Points per Target, he’s a great stash candidate entering the 2021 season. 

Not only does Buffalo cutting John Brown make sense financially, it also opens up more opportunity for a younger, better player in Gabriel Davis to contribute more in an offense that averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays per Game. Chase Claypool is the only rookie wide receiver to score more touchdowns than Gabriel Davis’ seven (No. 19) this season. Not bad for a player overlooked in dynasty rookie drafts because 14 wide receivers were picked before him in the NFL Draft.

Entering his age-31 season next year, Mark Ingram is likely to be a cap casualty with the Ravens on the hook for just $1.33 million of his $6.33 2021 cap hit. That means they save $5 million releasing him, which makes sense with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the tuck. With Todd Gurley’s contract set to expire, the Falcons appear to have an opening. Ingram ran for over 1,000 yards in 2019 and might have enough juice for one last squeeze, being that he’s toted the rock just 63 times in 2020.

The Lions would save $14 million releasing Matthew Stafford. Staring down a rebuild, it’s a coin flip if he returns to the team in 2021. With a better-than-appears roster, Stafford’s worth the dart throw in what’s set to be John Elway’s final year under contract as Broncos General Manager. A healthy Broncos team in 2021 is a dark-horse playoff contender.